Portland Trailblazers: Missed Playoffs
Team Overview: I have officially declared this team the “Team to Watch” for 2008-2009. They surpassed most people’s expectations last year going 41-41 but still missing the playoffs. The way these young players attack the rim, they get high percentage shots and will earn many trips to the free throw line. Not to mention create a lot of exciting dunks and highlights. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge took a major step in their careers last season proving they can win games and lead a team. Now they have more talent behind them and will have to continue to develop as stars for the Blazers to take the next step to the playoffs.
Guys they can’t lose: Roy, Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw. Roy and Aldridge are the leaders and stars. Despite their youth, they have taken the team in their back how they perform will be how the Blazers perform. Greg Oden is supposed to be the difference maker and from how dominant he has looked at times in pre-season, he should make a huge impact. Don’t judge Oden’s influence by his offensive numbers, his biggest impact will be felt in the paint on defense. Travis Outlaw is the guy the Blazers rely on late in games to hit the clutch shots. He won at least two games last season by hitting crucial shots.
Guys they should lose: Steve Blake. Blake is just blocking the way for Sergio Rodriguez, who was snubbed from the Spanish National Team, to take a bigger role with the team. Rodriguez is a dynamic guard who can hit the three, drive to the hole, but mostly finds an open player. Blake is not a bad point guard, but he has limited potential and should not see more minutes than Rodriguez. And the more minutes Nate McMillan can give Jerryd Bayless, the quicker he can develop and help the team.
Burning Questions:
Are the Trailblazers too young to make the playoffs? The average age of this team is under 24. In the NBA, youth does not typically win. Veterans win games and make deep runs into the playoffs. But there is an exception to every rule and the Blazers will be this year’s exception.
Will the Portland second string be able to build on leads? Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez make an electric tandem in the backcourt. Making exciting plays are crucial to energize the crowd and excite the starters watching from the bench. Fernandez has show incredible vision on the court and a fantastic leaping ability with a knack for finishing at the rim. He should make a serious case for the 6th Man Award. Joel Przybilla is the backup center and will be essential for keeping Oden rested and playing important minutes when Oden gets into foul trouble. This second unit will be better than most in the West and will be key in making the playoffs.
2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Blazers will be the surprise of the West. They have more athleticism and dynamic players than most teams. Brandon Roy does not have the pressure of scoring every play and other players can carry the team when he struggles. This environment should create confidence within Roy and make him a superstar in the league. In the Northwest Division, over-taking Utah is not likely without major injury help, but passing Denver for second is a realistic goal and beating up on Minnesota and Oklahoma City should help the Blazers pad their record for a pretty good playoff seed. The Blazers may not get much national coverage on the West Coast, but keep an eye on this time and check out as many highlights as you can find.
Miami Heat: Missed Playoffs
Team Overview: The Heat are almost guaranteed to be the most improved team in the NBA. After winning 15 games, anything the Heat do this year will be better than last season. Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion are both stars and the “scrubs” saw a lot of minutes last year. You can’t buy experience like that, plus the Heat earned the second pick and selected the talented but misguided Michael Beasley.
Guys they can’t lose: Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem. Wade proved how important he is to the Heat. By suffering through the season with injuries, the Heat were without their superstar and suffered a horrible season. If Wade can stay healthy and play like he showed he is capable of in the Olympics, the Heat will have one of the best players in the NBA. The Heat need Marion to be versatile and fill the holes the Heat have. Right now, this means rebounding and guarding bigger players. The Heat will also rely heavily on Beasley to score and rebound and provide some low post presence when necessary. Haslem will be relied on to be a leader and force in the paint. The Heats biggest weakness is a lack of big man but Halsem could go a long way to shoring up that weakness.
Guys they should lose: Unless Marion becomes a headache, no one on the roster is detrimental to the team chemistry or gets in the way of another player stepping up. Marion has the potential to be one of the best all-around player in the league, or he can be one of the biggest distractions. Rumors for trading Marion have already circulated but unless the Heat can get a great price, they should just stick with him and try to make him happy. The Heat would collapse if it lost Marion so they have to gamble on the fact that he plays hard, works hard in practice and provides positive leadership for the rest of the players.
Burning Questions:
Will teams underestimate the Heat? The Heat were the worst team in the NBA last season but everyone saw Wade play in the Olympics and they remember that he can take over a game. While a few might underestimate the Heat, no one should underestimate Dwyane Wade. He is the best player in the NBA at attacking the paint and getting to the line in clutch situations. The only way to beat the Heat is to slow down Wade and no one will forget how important that is. However, no one knows how to slow Wade down so that might not even matter.
Will the young players step up enough for the Heat to make the playoffs? The Heat will be relying on not only Beasley, but Mario Chalmers to play well in a backup role running the point. Joel Anthony and Daequan Cook will both have to play well to fill their roles as reserves. Cook is a lights-out shooter but streaky shooter. Joel Anthony racked up a lot of experience last season that should prove valuable.
2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Heat benefit from a weak division with the Bobcats, Hawks, the injury-prone Wizards. But the East is vastly improved from a year ago and the return of Dwyane Wade and the addition of Shawn Marion are two major reasons for that. The Heat are my surprise pick for next year. If the Heat make the playoffs, Dwyane Wade should be a lock for MVP and depending on how well Beasley plays and the impact he makes, he should be a strong contender for rookie of the year.
New York Knicks: Missed Playoffs
Team Overview: The Knicks are in shambles and an embarrassment to the NBA. But that could have changed with a few huge moves, namely the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as Head Coach. Drafting Danilo Gallinari was a big mistake. I’m not sure what the Knicks expected from the young player, but it seems like every year, someone takes a European player and he does nothing. Most of the European players in the league have been successes without being drafted in the top 10.
Guys they can’t lose: David Lee, Nate Robinson. These are the only guys who put the necessary effort into consistent winning in the NBA. They may not be the most talented players on the team, but they work hard and play well as teammates.
Guys they should lose: Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph. These guys were the ‘leaders’ of last year’s team. They are the guys with the talent and size that they should be NBA stars. But they lack the drive and determination to get into shape and understand the dynamics of winning. Marbury is a great player, but he is selfish, and while he might rack up the stats, the win column will always be neglected. Curry has the super-human ability to pop a medicine ball with his ass. While impressive, does not translate well to the hardwood. He is too slow and lazy to thrive in the D’Antoni system and should not see as many minutes as he is used to. Randolph still has potential but will likely be discouraged that he too does not fit in the run-and-gun style the Knicks will employ this season.
Burning Questions:
Will the Knicks develop enough chemistry to overcome talent deficiencies? Every bad team has an excuse for the next two years. Prepare to hear this line over and over, “We’re just freeing cap space to get LeBron, Wade, or Bosh.” Unfortunately, there are more than three bad teams and at least one of those players will stay put. I doubt the Knicks will be able to get any of those players unless they win some games and build some excitement for the young talent.
How will D’Antoni’s offense affect the Knicks win-loss record? The Knicks are almost guaranteed to score more points this season. But just as surely, they will give up more points. The fans might love to see the players run the floor, but they cannot stop other teams from scoring, so expect the Knicks to lose a lot of high scoring games. But losing was expected anyway, might as well provide some highlight plays while they rebuild.
2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs (29-53) – The Knicks have low expectations. But Mike D’Antoni is expected to turn the franchise around. Unfortunately for D’Antoni, he took over the franchise as it was headed over a cliff and it will be a long and trying process to turn the club around. Knicks fans have some solace in the fast-paced offense that will light up the scoreboard, but will be endlessly frustrated with the gaudy amount of points the Knicks will surrender. Not to mention the Knicks will battle in the toughest division in the East, against the Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. A realistic goal is to finish fourth ahead of the Nets and try to turn that into a bargaining chip for free agents. The Knicks need some patience from its fans and maybe an unexpected player to break out. The NBA can be unpredictable, and chemistry dominates but the Knicks need a miracle to even see the playoffs with binoculars.
