Team Capsules and Predictions: PHX/DEN

Phoenix Suns: First Round loss to Spurs

Team Overview: Steve Kerr rolled the dice with a major trade last season and many people considered the move a total failure, grouping it with Dallas’ big trade blunder.  I thought at the time, and I still believe, the trade for Shaquille O’Neal was the right move.  Shawn Marion is a fantastic player, but he was fed up with the Suns.  He needed out and Kerr saw a chance to bring in the most dominant center, maybe even the best player since Jordan.  Besides, the Suns had peaked, gone as far as they could with Nash, Marion and Stoudemire and Kerr want to win a Title.

Guys they can’t lose:  Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Shaq, Grant Hill.  This team is getting up and age and several of the key parts only have a couple years left in the NBA.  In fact, The Big Cactus said he will retire when his contract is up in two years.  If you take a moment to think about the successful teams in the NBA, you’ll realize they are almost exclusively composed of veterans.  Experience wins in the NBA, and the Suns have plenty.  With Barbosa, Bell and Stoudemire, they have youth and energy to match the young talent in the West.  With the addition on Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez (who will be a bust) the Suns can compete with a variety of opponents.

Guys they should lose:  No one on the roster hurts the team chemistry or cannot fill a valuable role.  But Terry Porter is the biggest question mark, next to Shaq’s age and health (which I predict will not be a question for long), as relatively new head coach.  Shaq liked Mike D’Antoni and was not happy to see him go.  Porter must overcome the inherent resentment and take control of this team.  And if the most exciting team over the past five years can lock down defensively, they could be close to unbeatable. 

Burning Questions:

Will age and health keep the Suns from a deep playoff push?  Grant Hill stayed healthy all season, Shaq was out of shape and hurt most of last year, and Nash has chronic back pain.  But I trust Shaq and Nash to push themselves back on the court to a competitive level.  Hill and Nash desperately want to win it all.  Shaq wants to be thought of as the greatest and he would LOVE to eliminate Kobe and the Lakers.

Can Terry Porter lead the Suns to play stout defense and still play to the player’s strengths?  Stoudemire is excited for the next year and I know he is not completely objective, but you have to think something is going right.  Shaq will take pressure off Stoudemire and Amare should have his best year in the NBA.  Stat is surrounded by great passers and guys who can score and might get some consideration for MVP is the Suns win their way to the top of the West.

2008-2009 Prediction –Second Round – This many great, veteran players could be a championship team.  And the Suns nemesis San Antonio Spurs are poised for a down year, which would allow the Suns a clearer path to the Finals.  But the Lakers are too good and have a complete team with a guy who can take over a game without help, unlike Stoudemire who needs someone to get him the ball.  Assuming the team stays healthy, the Lakers-Suns story line will be one of the most compelling in recent memory, but I doubt it will go the way of Phoenix.

 

Denver Nuggets: First Round loss to Lakers

Team Overview: Criticism flowed into Denver with the garage sale price the Nuggets received for Marcus Camby.  The Nuggets biggest concern is defense.  Its second biggest concern is defense.  With shipping out Camby, Denver did not help their two biggest concerns. Nene Hilario is coming back and Kiki Vandeweghe probably expects him to return to his level of play before he was diagnosed.  If Nene can play consistently in the post, the loss of Camby will not look as bad.  Either way, the Nuggets are far from a complete team and need a guy who can play lock-down defense.

Guys they can’t lose: Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Nene.   Without Melo and A.I., the Nuggets are a team who can’t play defense and can’t score.  At least those guys solve one of those issues.  Melo needs to establish himself as the team leader and lead by example on the defensive end of the court.  With someone like Iverson who has been such a fixture in the NBA for so long, that might be intimidating for Anthony, but he needs to stop making offcourt mistakes and convince his team to fight on defense.  Nene was emerging as a great big man before he was diagnosed with cancer.  If he can regain that confidence and swagger in the paint, the Nuggets will be tougher on both ends.

Guys they should lose: J.R. Smith, Chris Anderson.  Smith could get onto the ‘can’t lose’ list with a year of consistent play.  Not taking bad shots and turning the ball over are the two keys that would turn Smith into a serious weapon instead of just a streaky three-point shooter.  His athleticism is certainly an asset, but until he can prove not to be a liability when he isn’t on fire, he’s not going to help the team win games.  As far as Anderson goes, what were the Nuggets thinking?  The Birdman, fresh off his suspension for violating the NBA’s substance abuse policy for using what is speculated as cocaine, is a walking disaster.  Or maybe a dunking disaster would be more appropriate.  He is an electrifying player, but his issues will inevitably distract the team in the clubhouse more than his excitement will help.

Burning Questions:

Defense?  Anyone?  I understand how it could be discouraging to play defense when the guy next to you lets his man go to the hoop at will.  After watching the opposing team shoot open jumpers and practice layup drills at your expense, you stop working hard every possession.  And in the NBA, that will kill your chances of success.

Is Melo worth his extension?  Unlike LeBron, Bosh, and D-Wade, Melo signed an extension so he would not be a free agent in the summer of 2010.  He is locked for an extra year with a player option after that.  Clearly a great decision for Melo, because he won’t have to compete with three of league’s premier stars for big money.  But for Denver, if the team can’t figure out a way to play some defense and win some games, Melo could get disgruntled being locked on a mediocre team.  He desperately wants an NBA Title and trade rumors have already circulated.  How he plays next year will be significant for both parties’ futures.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round  -- Anyone who follows the NBA knows the Nuggets weakness.  If they can figure out a way to play solid defense, the landscape in the West shifts, but this still isn’t a good enough team to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Team Capsules and Predictions: WAS/TOR

Washington Wizards:  First Round loss to Cleveland

Team Overview: This team is like the nemesis to the Cavaliers.  The Cavs always end up winning like the hero in a Hollywood movie.  That would make the Wizards the villain.  But to Wizards fans, every year is a new chance to prove theirs is a team not to be taken lightly.  Every team has a Big 3 these days, but the combo of Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are three of the most talented players in the East.  There is no lack of skill on the Wizards but team chemistry is the other half of the puzzle that Eddie Jordan must fit together for Washington to improve on it’s recent playoff success.

Guys they can’t lose:  Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.  These two guys have shown that not only can they take a back seat to make a star better (Arenas).  But if that star gets hurt, they can step up and lead the team to victories.  These two guys are versatile and can compliment any group of players.  With a quick point guard and a good rebounding big man, these two could flourish even further.  Nick Young has shown explosiveness and the ability to control the tempo of games.  The combo of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood down low provides consistent play and reliable, but not great, defense.

Guys they should lose:  Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson.  Speaking of players who destroy team chemistry, these guys are like the guys at the rec center who you know have talent but you hope are never on your team.  When you know you might only touch the ball once every five possessions, the motivation to play defense disappears.  And the drive to work hard on offense to get good shots for teammates also goes away.  It is no wonder the Wizards actually improve when Arenas is hurt and off the court.  He is a great player, but he kills the productivity of the other four guys on the court.  Stevenson is like his ball-hogging apprentice who is joining the family business of looking good but killing his team.

Burning Questions:

How long will Arenas be out after knee surgery?  According to reports, he is supposed to be back on the court the middle of December, but with his recent history, I doubt he will play in 2008.  I’m not saying that’s a bad thing because of the negative effect he causes on the rest of the team, but he can score and any other significant injuries would set this team back more than they can recover from.

Can the Wizards beat the Cavaliers?  Just like the Spurs recently in the West have bested the Suns, the Wizards are limited by their inability to eliminate LeBron James and Co.  The method of calling him out did not work well last year.  I would suggest the “nobody respects us angle” and see if they can get LeBron to relax.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round – The Wizards have experience, size, scoring ability and youth to provide energy.  But Eddie Jordan needs to control his players and establish a pecking order that puts Butler and Jamison is charge.  More importantly, Butler and Jamison need to establish themselves as leaders on the court.  The Wizards have plenty of role players and if one of them emerges as a star, the Wizards could be tough to beat.  As the team looks now, it is primed for another solid season followed by a disappointing early exit from the playoffs.

 

Toronto Raptors: First Round loss to Orlando

Team Overview: The Raptors have one of, if not the biggest teams in the NBA.  Three of the Raptors starting five will be 6-10 or taller.  Toronto lost T.J. Ford to acquire Jermaine O’Neal.  Ford was a victim of multiple neck injuries in the past couple seasons.  Ford lost some of his edge and was more timid driving to the hoop, which was a major strength.  O’Neal was a dominant player before suffering a major knee injury.  If fully rehabilitated, the Raptors would be nearly unstoppable in the post.  If not, they just acquired a very expensive bench warmer.

Guys they can’t lose:  Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, Jose Calderon.  Chris Bosh became the pleasant surprise of the Olympics for Team USA.  He showed incredible versatility and could be stepping into the upper echelon of NBA superstars.  With O’Neal playing the center, Bosh will be free to play against smaller defenders and avoid double-teams.  That tandem in the post will be the most dominant since Tim Duncan and David Robinson.  Jose Calderon has a great ability to get other players involved while taking advantage of his own scoring chances.

Guys they should lose:  This team has no negative players.  Even Andrea Bargnani is developing into a reliable player.  This is close to a complete team.  Delfino and Kapono provide range from downtown.  Humphries and Moon provide energy and fantastic rebounding from wing players.  Graham and Parker are big bodies who can wear down opponents and score in the lane or step out and hit a jumper.  The only major weakness on this team is a lack of veteran leadership.

Burning Questions:

Will Sam Mitchell be able to coach such a young team against proven veteran teams?  O’Neal is by far the most experienced player.  Bosh has limited experience but should be the most vocal in the locker room.  This core group of guys have been together for a couple years and have been eliminated in the First Round the past two seasons.  As talented as the Raptors are, the NBA is an experience-driven league.  They would need to acquire someone who knows what a deep playoff run means if Toronto is to win the East.

Can Jermaine O’Neal stay healthy?  Fans who remember O’Neal on the Pacers remember how dominant he used to be.  Even if he comes back close to that level, Raptors fans should be thrilled.  He’s been in the league twelve years, which is hard to believe, but he is still only thirty years old.  That is plenty young to recover and get back into shape.  But the NBA season is long and brutal, especially on the knees of big men.  This is something the Raptors must monitor closely and make sure to give O’Neal enough rest to make it through the gauntlet of the NBA season and post-season.

2008-2009 Prediction – Eastern Conference Finals – There could be no stopping this Toronto team.  They will be extremely exciting with the power of Kris Humphries and the acrobatics of Jamario Moon.  Bosh could make a serious case for MVP and O’Neal could be the comeback player of the decade.  Or they could struggle with injuries like most expect to happen.  The Atlantic Division will be tough with Boston and Philly both looking for deep playoff runs, but Toronto will feast on New Jersey and New York who will be awful.  With the right leadership, this team will be opening eyes and bring some basketball respect back to Canada.

2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: HOU/DAL

Houston Rockets:  First Round loss to Utah

Team Overview:  The team with the best chemistry during the season added a new piece that could completely overthrow the stability that led to a season-high 22-game winning streak.  On the other hand, Ron Artest could make the Rockets the most tenacious defensive team in the West.  Injuries were a major concern last season and after Yao Ming’s participation in the Olympics and looking less than sturdy, the Rockets may have to bench the big fella to keep him fresh for the end of the season.

Guys they can’t lose:  Rafer Alston, Tracy McGrady, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Yao Ming, Ron Artest.  The good news is they have plenty of impact players.  The bad news is with this many players, the likelihood increases that one will suffer a significant setback.  The most important player on the Rockets possibly gets the least publicity.  Rafer Alston runs the team efficiently and that is why the Rockets could still win when Yao and McGrady were out.  But when Skip to My Lou was out in the playoffs, the Jazz swept both games.

Guys they must lose:  Nobody.  Even Steve Francis has settled into a role he understands and plays well.  Instead I will discuss the major additions that will lead Houston to post-season success.  Brent Barry and Ron Artest.  Barry knows how to win.  He can play or defend almost any position.  He can hit big shots off the bench or provide the hustle that can spark a run.  Ron Artest can frustrate the biggest threats Houston would face in the West, primarily, Kobe Bryant.  Artest can also score and take pressure off McGrady and Yao to provide offense.

Burning Questions:

Will Ron Artest disrupt chemistry offensively?  This is Rafer Alston’s team.  He or anyone else in the organization may not admit it, but to get three superstars to work together, the point guard must run the show.  If any single star tries to take over, the other two are relegated to standing and watching.  Then they become very expensive statues.  If Alston is hurt or does not take command, the three stars will have a non-verbal power struggle that would keep the team from meshing and winning. 

Will Yao Ming be completely worthless this season recovering from the Olympics?  Giants do not have a lengthy shelf life in the NBA.  And Yao Ming has never had an “off-season”.  He works out with the Chinese National Team every summer and has minor injuries he cannot overcome throughout the year.  The best solution would be for Yao to play about 20-25 minutes early in the season and take a night off every two weeks.  After the All-Star break, let him get used to a bigger work-load and pray to that lovable little Buddha he stays healthy.  At least the Rockets have a exciting up-and-coming big man.  You may have heard of him, Dikembe Mutombo, 42.

2008-2009 Prediction – Western Conference Finals:  Even with injuries, this team is complete from top to bottom.  They have plenty of scoring and possibly the best defense in the West.  Tracy McGrady will get out of the first round and he won’t even be the reason why.  That honor goes to a former street balla and a Spanish player named Scola who never stops hustling.  The Rockets could certainly give the Lakers a run for their money in the West and Kobe Bryant would have to perform a hardwood miracle, which he is certainly capable.

Dallas Mavericks:  First Round loss to New Orleans

Team Overview:  Mark Cuban took mighty swing but whiffed last season trying to win an NBA Title.  He traded away a lightning quick point guard for one who wasn’t even around when quick was a word.  Jason Kidd is not reliable.  He is the opposite. He is careless with the ball and can’t shoot.  That is not what a good game manager should do.  Not to mention, Devin Harris was Josh Howard’s best friend and Howard lost the will to compete when Harris was shipped off for Pops Kidd.  Luckily, Nowitzki and a few other players were able to win enough to make the playoffs, where they were humiliated by the younger and faster Hornets.

Guys they can’t lose:  Dirk Nowitzki.  When Cuban traded Steve Nash (another great move, pause, NOT) Dirk became the focal point of the Mavericks for as long as no one else offers him more cash.  He is the only one that matters and can win games on his own.  But if the West is as strong as it was last year, that will not be enough.  The Mavs need to make moves and they should have done it in the off-season.  DeSegana Diop should be on this list because he was a crowd pleaser and hustle-guy, but he was also traded for Kidd.  Brandon Bass could work his way onto this list for next season.

Guys they should lose:  Jason Kidd, Josh Howard, Devean George.  Jason Kidd will make more money next year than any Dallas fan wants to know about.  But for those who aren’t, $21.3 million dollars.  Josh Howard will not play to his potential, which is a solid second option who still can’t hit clutch shots, if he is disgruntled with management.  I’m not saying he has to always play with his buddy, but he will not have the killer edge until he has something or someone to play for.  Devean George is still on Mark Cuban’s bad list and the fans know George made the Kidd trade even worse, if that’s possible.

Burning Questions:

Will Avery Johnson coach a team with a backbone?  Dirk Nowitzki is the toughest player in the NBA.  He plays through injuries and recovers from injuries quicker than any player.  But mentally, Dallas is not a tough team.  They do not have confidence and cannot shut down star players.  In the star-studded West, that is a big problem.  A team can make up for a lack in talent with grit and determination, and Nowitzki is the only player with either of those qualities.  Jason Terry is a solid cog, but not nearly enough.

Can Dallas compete in the loaded Southwest Division?  Houston, New Orleans and San Antonio have teams that could win it all next year.  And these are the teams Dallas will play the most.  Memphis is the other team and has been a perennial cupcake, but will have a few players (Mayo and Marc Gasol) that will make them much tougher.  Losses will add up quickly for a team already struggling.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs – (38-44 Record):  Mark Cuban bet the house on Jason Kidd and now the Mavericks can’t beat teams with winning records.  In the toughest division in the NBA, that is bad news.  I expect Dallas to make moves this season, but the current team is not good enough for the West.  Kidd and Nowitzki played in the Olympics and could be worn down, another bad sign.  Cuban will need some Ritalin to make it through this season.  Buying the Cubs should help with his blood pressure… yeah right.