Cleveland Cavaliers: Second Round loss to Celtics
Team Overview: LeBron James should always be the first two words uttered when referring to the Cavs. James is the best athlete in the NBA. No question, no debate. His importance to the team cannot be overstated. But he cannot win a Championship by himself. Although ill conceived, management made major moves last year to try and provide LeBron with the needed support. They were nowhere near enough. Wally Szczerbiak could not hit a shot, which was his only job. Ben Wallace is a tenacious rebounder, but can’t score. And here’s a little tidbit, he will make more money next season than LeBron James. That makes last year’s trade look even more detrimental to Cleveland.
Guys they can’t lose: LeBron James, LeBron James and LeBron James. Every player on this team is expendable for the right price. Daniel Gibson is a nice player and Ilgauskas has played the role of second fiddle decently, but he is not a top-level big man. Rookie J.J. Hickson has been excellent in Summer League and could develop into a great compliment to LeBron.
Guys they should lose: Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Eric Snow. Combined 2008-2009 salaries for these three players? Around $35 million. For that money, the Cavs should be able to supply LeBron James with more than enough help to get back to the Finals. None of them are bad players, but together they do not form a winning cast of supporting players. Rumors circulating indicate James has interest in one of his Olympic teammates, specifically Dwyane Wade, and getting rid of those three contracts would be imperative before it becomes reality.
Burning Questions:
Can LeBron James carry another mediocre team deep into the playoffs? The weight of carrying bad teams seemed to show on James last season as he missed some time with minor injuries. Even in the playoffs, he did not seem to have the same enthusiasm he did the year before. He needs support on the court, and off the court. He needs someone who can score so he doesn’t always have to. If help does not come, James will slip further into frustration and his play will reflect that attitude.
Will the distraction of LeBron’s impending free agency be too much for the superstar? James wants to stay in Cleveland. There is no place like home. His friendship with Nets minority owner (less than 1% percent minority) Jay-Z has been talked about for the past year and speculation suggests a conspiracy that will land James in Brooklyn via New Jersey. For the right price (money and players) James could leave Cleveland. But the Nets do not have the players to entice The King. Cleveland showed last year it is willing to make big moves to supports its star.
2008-2009 Prediction – First Round: The Cavaliers are a bad team. They were a bad team when they made the Finals against the Spurs. The NBA is a game full of superstars, but role players enable those superstars to win championships. Until James gets sufficient role players, he will be a great player on a bad team. The players on Cleveland’s roster are not playoff-caliber players. James can lift the team into the playoffs but the East will be drastically better this season than last and surviving in the playoffs will be more difficult. The Cavaliers will not sustain a top 4 record in the East and will not have home-court advantage in the post-season against a tough and more balanced team (which is any other team).
Orlando Magic: Second Round loss to Pistons
Team Overview: Building a team around a reliable center is a great way to create a successful franchise. But the last time Orlando had a dominant big man, he got away to a bigger market. The Magic management’s first priority must be to make sure that does not happen with Dwight Howard. Orlando shot more threes last season than any other teams. Every player, except the center, on the court can hit a three. Maybe the Magic should acquire Mehmet Okur so no player ever has to go inside the arc. But Orlando managed the third best record in the East last season with Jameer Nelson running the point.
Guys they can’t lose: Howard, Turkoglu, Lewis. I can’t stress the importance of Dwight Howard to this organization. Finding a true center that can dominate the post in the NBA is rare and the Magic must cling to him. Hedo Turkoglu does not get enough credit around the league for his role on this team. He does everything and does it with an attitude that gives the Magic toughness. Rashard Lewis could be more of a star if he would play with Turkoglu’s attitude. But he falls in love with the three and stops driving to the hoop. With a guy like Howard down low and the three point shooters on this team, the Magic need a guy who can penetrate and disrupt defenses.
Guys they should lose: J.J. Redick. How is this guy not playing in Europe yet? With all the players transitioning to European basketball, Redick needs to go. He does not fit in the NBA game. It’s easy to score on a team full of collegiate stars with a short three-point line. But Redick will never help a team win games. Other than him, and he doesn’t even play, the Magic have a decent roster. Jameer Nelson is not an upper echelon point guard, but does a good job with the players around him and could serve as a great back up if the Magic were to acquire someone in the trade market.
Burning Questions:
What will be Superman’s Kryptonite? Dwight Howard is exciting and is almost unguardable if he gets deep in the post. But he has not shown the ability to take over the game the way Shaquille O’Neal was able to in his heyday. He must be able to hit big free throws so he can play late in games and avoid a Hack-a-Dwight scenario.
Will the Magic live by the three or die by the three? Shooting 33% from three point range is equally efficient as shooting 50% from inside the arc. The Magic shot the 4th best percentage from downtown and were 6th in scoring. Seems like the strategy worked pretty well. What games will come down to for the Magic is hitting the clutch shot late in games and if Lewis, Turkoglu can step up, the Magic will be a team to be feared in the East.
2008-2009 Prediction – First Round: As talented as Orlando is, it is still an inexperienced team. Stan Van Gundy is a good coach and knows what a winning team needs so I expect a move to provide leadership at one of the guard positions or help with depth off the bench. Without it, Orlando can’t win a playoff series against another team who can defend in the post and force some bad shots while scoring in the high 90s.
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