Monday, July 28, 2008

2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: NOH/UTA

New Orleans Hornets:  Second Round loss to Spurs

 

Team Overview:  The Hornets seemed to come out of nowhere, but the people who watched them since Chris Paul arrived knew they had the potential for greatness if the players would stay healthy.  1n the 2007-2008 regular season, Paul, West, Stojakovic and Chandler missed just 16 games combined.  Compared to126 games the four missed the previous year.  But the Bees showed signs of breaking down in the playoffs with West (back) and Chandler (ankle) both having injury issues.  The acquisition of James Posey fresh of another NBA Championship fortifies the bench and is a huge help with defense.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  CP3, D-West, Chandler, Stojakovic and Posey.  Posey makes his second “Guys they can’t lose” list, this time with the Hornets, because of his defensive ability, his post-season experience and his big shot capability.  Stojakovic is a fantastic scorer that can carry a team or just sit outside and make defenses pay when they try to double-team.  West is a dynamic scorer who is finally breaking out and could prove to be a perennial All-Star.  Chandler is a fierce rebounder and a better pick-and-roll partner with Paul.

 

Guys they should lose:  Bonzi Wells.  Wells was brought in because of his experience and to score off the bench.  He fulfills neither role as well as Posey will and Wells is a ball-stopper.  When he touches the rock, everyone else is delegated to spectators.  Byron Scott and GM Jeff Bower have done a phenomenal job filling the roster with useful players with a specific role, and Wells no longer fills a role.

 

Burning Questions:

Can New Orleans stay healthy?  Last year seemed like the exception, rather than the rule, especially with Stojakovic.  I doubt he will last all season and will become a non-factor for the playoffs.  West and Chandler are both tough and should be  fine, but I don’t trust Chris Paul with his size and physical style of play.

 

Will the young Hornets be ready to dominate opponents’ benches?  Jannero Pargo, Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong have developed and shown flashes of competing on the highest level.  With Posey, the Hornets bench looks like the most solid back-up unit in the West.  Pargo and Wright could break-out and have stellar seasons and help win a ton of games for the Hornets.

 

Will playing with Team USA be a positive or negative experience?  He will no doubt gain knowledge and skill from playing with 14 other superstars as well as being surrounded by some of the greatest basketball minds ever assembled.  Instead of resting from a rigorous season and two rounds of intense playoff action, he will be competing against stiff international competition.  Assuming he doesn’t suffer any injuries, he might not have the energy for another full season and playoff run.

 

2008-2009 Prediction -- Second Round:  I love the team the Hornets will have when the season starts, but there is no way everyone will stay healthy the entire year.  I hate “predicting injuries” but there is too much evidence to ignore.  If Bower can work his magic in free agency again, the Hornets have the offensive talent, and now with Posey, defensive toughness to shut down some of the Western traditional powerhouses.

Utah Jazz:  Second Round loss to Lakers

 

Team Overview: Since the arrival of Deron Williams the Jazz have become a formidable team in the West.  A one-two punch with Carlos Boozer makes the Jazz tough on offense.  Kyle Korver, traded for last season, made the Jazz a dangerous offensive team.  The Jazz have good size and rebounding, but lack a true center.  Mehmet Okur tends to float around the perimeter looking for threes.  While it’s tough to stop, it takes away from a potential post-up game.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  D-Will, Boozer, Brewer, Korver.  Kirilenko and Okur are solid players, but they are not championship material.  Paul Millsap is a banger in the post and is dominate against most second strings.  Ronnie Brewer is the only player who brings pure excitement and energy to the starting lineup.  He has talent, but can be wildly inconsistent.  If there is a coach in the league who can teach him to limit turnovers and bad shots, it’s Jerry Sloan.  Kyle Korver is a lights-out shooter who made a huge difference but is limited athletically.

 

Guys they should lose:  All the backup centers.  The Jazz have been trying to find someone who can play in the post and compliment Boozer.  Someone who forces defenses to guard down low and leave Boozer in one-on-one defenses.  Jarron Collins is not that guy.  Kosta Koufos was picked 23rd in the 2008 Draft, but does not look tough enough in limited Summer League action.  Kyrylo Fesenko was also unimpressive in the Rocky Mountain Revue.  The Jazz should dump these guys on someone’s porch, ring the bell and run like hell.

 

Burning Questions:

How will playing with Team USA affect Boozer and Williams?  Both players are young and have a history of not getting hurt.  Not to mention both are physically built like rocks.  Playing with the world’s best should be nothing but helpful for the duo.

 

Which Kirilenko will show up for ’08-’09?  In 2005-2006, Kirilenko averaged over 15 points and 8 rebounds a game.  The following year his numbers dropped to under 9 points and 5 rebounds a contest.  He has taken a back seat to Williams and Boozer, but his field goal percentage has gone up every year since D-Will arrived.  Maybe scoring and rebounding production isn’t as crucial from AK-47.

 

Is the Jazz good enough in any area to be the best as a whole?  The Jazz is well rounded, but lack a “superstar”.   If they can find a way to use the team mentality to subdue the star-filled West, they can get through the second round.  While deep and balanced at every position, no one has shown the ability to take over a game.

 

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  The Jazz is a solid and balanced team that is dominating at home.  But most of the best teams are dominating at home, so that advantage goes out the window in the playoffs.  If Rafer Alston had not missed a couple games in the first round the Jazz would have lost to the Rockets in the first round. The Jazz is balanced but not spectacular.  I think they peaked the past two seasons and this team is consistent enough to live in the second round of the playoffs, but no further and any missteps will lead to a shorter season.

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