2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: NOH/UTA

New Orleans Hornets:  Second Round loss to Spurs

 

Team Overview:  The Hornets seemed to come out of nowhere, but the people who watched them since Chris Paul arrived knew they had the potential for greatness if the players would stay healthy.  1n the 2007-2008 regular season, Paul, West, Stojakovic and Chandler missed just 16 games combined.  Compared to126 games the four missed the previous year.  But the Bees showed signs of breaking down in the playoffs with West (back) and Chandler (ankle) both having injury issues.  The acquisition of James Posey fresh of another NBA Championship fortifies the bench and is a huge help with defense.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  CP3, D-West, Chandler, Stojakovic and Posey.  Posey makes his second “Guys they can’t lose” list, this time with the Hornets, because of his defensive ability, his post-season experience and his big shot capability.  Stojakovic is a fantastic scorer that can carry a team or just sit outside and make defenses pay when they try to double-team.  West is a dynamic scorer who is finally breaking out and could prove to be a perennial All-Star.  Chandler is a fierce rebounder and a better pick-and-roll partner with Paul.

 

Guys they should lose:  Bonzi Wells.  Wells was brought in because of his experience and to score off the bench.  He fulfills neither role as well as Posey will and Wells is a ball-stopper.  When he touches the rock, everyone else is delegated to spectators.  Byron Scott and GM Jeff Bower have done a phenomenal job filling the roster with useful players with a specific role, and Wells no longer fills a role.

 

Burning Questions:

Can New Orleans stay healthy?  Last year seemed like the exception, rather than the rule, especially with Stojakovic.  I doubt he will last all season and will become a non-factor for the playoffs.  West and Chandler are both tough and should be  fine, but I don’t trust Chris Paul with his size and physical style of play.

 

Will the young Hornets be ready to dominate opponents’ benches?  Jannero Pargo, Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong have developed and shown flashes of competing on the highest level.  With Posey, the Hornets bench looks like the most solid back-up unit in the West.  Pargo and Wright could break-out and have stellar seasons and help win a ton of games for the Hornets.

 

Will playing with Team USA be a positive or negative experience?  He will no doubt gain knowledge and skill from playing with 14 other superstars as well as being surrounded by some of the greatest basketball minds ever assembled.  Instead of resting from a rigorous season and two rounds of intense playoff action, he will be competing against stiff international competition.  Assuming he doesn’t suffer any injuries, he might not have the energy for another full season and playoff run.

 

2008-2009 Prediction -- Second Round:  I love the team the Hornets will have when the season starts, but there is no way everyone will stay healthy the entire year.  I hate “predicting injuries” but there is too much evidence to ignore.  If Bower can work his magic in free agency again, the Hornets have the offensive talent, and now with Posey, defensive toughness to shut down some of the Western traditional powerhouses.

Utah Jazz:  Second Round loss to Lakers

 

Team Overview: Since the arrival of Deron Williams the Jazz have become a formidable team in the West.  A one-two punch with Carlos Boozer makes the Jazz tough on offense.  Kyle Korver, traded for last season, made the Jazz a dangerous offensive team.  The Jazz have good size and rebounding, but lack a true center.  Mehmet Okur tends to float around the perimeter looking for threes.  While it’s tough to stop, it takes away from a potential post-up game.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  D-Will, Boozer, Brewer, Korver.  Kirilenko and Okur are solid players, but they are not championship material.  Paul Millsap is a banger in the post and is dominate against most second strings.  Ronnie Brewer is the only player who brings pure excitement and energy to the starting lineup.  He has talent, but can be wildly inconsistent.  If there is a coach in the league who can teach him to limit turnovers and bad shots, it’s Jerry Sloan.  Kyle Korver is a lights-out shooter who made a huge difference but is limited athletically.

 

Guys they should lose:  All the backup centers.  The Jazz have been trying to find someone who can play in the post and compliment Boozer.  Someone who forces defenses to guard down low and leave Boozer in one-on-one defenses.  Jarron Collins is not that guy.  Kosta Koufos was picked 23^rd in the 2008 Draft, but does not look tough enough in limited Summer League action.  Kyrylo Fesenko was also unimpressive in the Rocky Mountain Revue.  The Jazz should dump these guys on someone’s porch, ring the bell and run like hell.

 

Burning Questions:

How will playing with Team USA affect Boozer and Williams?  Both players are young and have a history of not getting hurt.  Not to mention both are physically built like rocks.  Playing with the world’s best should be nothing but helpful for the duo.

 

Which Kirilenko will show up for ’08-’09?  In 2005-2006, Kirilenko averaged over 15 points and 8 rebounds a game.  The following year his numbers dropped to under 9 points and 5 rebounds a contest.  He has taken a back seat to Williams and Boozer, but his field goal percentage has gone up every year since D-Will arrived.  Maybe scoring and rebounding production isn’t as crucial from AK-47.

 

Is the Jazz good enough in any area to be the best as a whole?  The Jazz is well rounded, but lack a “superstar”.   If they can find a way to use the team mentality to subdue the star-filled West, they can get through the second round.  While deep and balanced at every position, no one has shown the ability to take over a game.

 

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  The Jazz is a solid and balanced team that is dominating at home.  But most of the best teams are dominating at home, so that advantage goes out the window in the playoffs.  If Rafer Alston had not missed a couple games in the first round the Jazz would have lost to the Rockets in the first round. The Jazz is balanced but not spectacular.  I think they peaked the past two seasons and this team is consistent enough to live in the second round of the playoffs, but no further and any missteps will lead to a shorter season.

Team Capsules and Predictions: DET/SAN

Detroit Pistons:  Eastern Conference Finals

 

Team Overview:  The deepest team in the NBA couldn’t get enough out of the five guys on the court for whatever reason, possibly Rasheed’s apathy, and lost unceremoniously to the Celtics.  Trade rumors sending Billups and Prince to Denver for Carmelo were tough to figure out, but I would guess Joe Dumars realized no matter how many talented players he had on the bench, only five guys can play at one time and more importantly only one can shoot at a time.  Still, Billups and Prince are great team players; unselfish and great defenders.  Detroit has enough talent to field a successful NBA team and a great D-League team, but they are only pretty good, not great and won’t be able to knock off a great team like a Boston or if LeBron gets some help.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  Hamilton, Prince, Stuckey, Maxiell.  The reason Billups and Rasheed aren’t on this list is because they have become to complacent being good and not great.  They are great players, but they’re attitudes keep Detroit from realizing the team’s potential.  Hamilton gives 25 points a game in the most efficient way of any player in the league.  Prince is a stellar defender and makes huge emotional plays at key times.  Stuckey and Maxiell are the future of the franchise.  These guys are fantastic to watch.  They are exciting and don’t make many mistakes which is rare for their inexperience.  Not many franchises are set to be good for the next 15 years.  Detroit fans should feel pretty good about the future.

 

Guys they should lose:  Nobody.  There is not a guy on this team that causes problems on or off the court, as far as us fans know.  Everyone plays well with everyone else.  There is no one that is holding the Pistons back.

 

Burning Questions:

What will the coaching change do to an already successful team?  Saunders is gone.  Michael Curry is in.  Curry is completely unproven, but he doesn’t need to build a team or develop talent.  Everything a coach could ever want is already there.  All he has to do is light a fire under the asses of a bunch of All-Stars and future All-Stars and keep them hungry through a long season and playoff run.

 

Will the young guys start competing for starting jobs?  Stuckey, Maxiell, Amir Johnson and Arron Afflalo are all good, but without significant injuries to the current starters, only Maxiell has a shot at starting consistentle.  Antonio McDyess is playing on completely on rebuilt knees and could use all the rest he could get, and if Maxiell can develop a mid-range jumper, he will start and become an essential piece of the Pistons Pie.

 

Prediction for 2008-09: Second Round – Next year will be a transition year for Michael Curry and his team.  The young guys are not quite ready to dominate the league, but will play enough to improve.  The veterans will be consistent but they still don’t have the tenacity to win it all.  I expect a determined Toronto or Cleveland team to knock off the second-seeded Pistons.

 

 

 

 

 

San Antonio Spurs: Western Conference Finals

 

Team Overview:  First off, the Spurs are an old team.  But they’re star players are not old; Duncan – 32, Ginobili – 29 (next season), Parker – 26.  They need some youth in the role positions.  Ian Mahinmi has been playing well in the D-League and could start providing help, but that is far from enough.  San Antonio needs to make a bold move in free agency to get younger or the Texas Trio will get worn out well before they should.  Duncan is the best power forward of all time and does not need a new supporting cast, but someone who can take the constant pressure off Timmy would help.

 

Guys they can’t lose: Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Bowen.  This a pretty obvious list.  The only questionable player is Bowen, but it’s easy to see his importance. He is a three-point outlet and a lock-down defender.  He gives the team a tough mentality that most teams don’t have.

 

Guys they should lose:  Kurt Thomas, Michael Finley, Brent Barry.  All these guys can make significant playoff contributions, but they’re value during the regular season is minimal.  These guys are why the team is old and slow.  Sure, they are experienced and are still quality players, but they can’t keep up for an entire year and expect to have the energy to play well in the post-season.  Barry is already gone to Houston, a good move for both teams.  Near the trade deadline, the Spurs will make some moves to get quality guys, but until then, they need some youth.

 

Burning Questions:

Can they keep up with the young and competitive West?  Parker is still young, but he is getting left behind in the top echelon of Western point guards.  Paul and Williams are the new class and Parker showed he cannot stop Paul, but Paul cannot stop Parker.  That could develop into a great rivalry in the next few years.  Ginobili is unlike any player in the league, but playing his style he can only last another two seasons.  Duncan’s style could last pretty much forever, but those three can’t compete with the youth and talent of the Hornets, Lakers, Trailblazers, Jazz, etc.

 

Will they wait until the Rodeo Road Trip to turn it on again?  This is the three-week road trip the team takes when the rodeo takes over the Alamo.  In past years, the team has bonded and come together during this time to make a run into the playoffs.  But they may not recover from a slow start and could finish in the bottom three or four in the West.  That would mean a very difficult first round in the playoffs.

 

Prediction for 2008-09: First Round – The Spurs are scheduled for a Title next year, but I think this will be the year they break their on-again off-again pattern.  The players on the Spurs right now are not good enough to get out of the first round of the playoffs.  The difference between a low seed to a top seed is only a couple wins and the Spurs are on the short end compared to most teams.

Team capsules and predictions: LA/BOS

Boston Celtics: NBA Champions

 

Team Overview: Led by the tenacious defense of Kevin Garnett and the never-say-die attitude of Paul Pierce, the Celtics have the leaders and star power to make another run at an NBA title.  Ray Allen is still a scoring threat and Rondo is learning how to manage a team at warp speed.  Down low, Perkins and Davis can be a tough combo to handle, but they are limited on both ends of the court.

 

Guys they can’t lose: KG, Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo, Posey and Tom Thibodeau.  The big three is obvious and Rondo should go without saying.  Even if there were a point guard in the market, the Celtics have gelled around this guy and he knows how to bring out the best in the stars.  Posey still provides clutch offense and defense that only a handful of guys in the league provide.  Thibodeau should be the next assistant to become a head coach, but he likes Boston and their team.  For a defensive mastermind, he has all the tools he could want.

 

Guys they should lose: Sam (Gollum) Cassell, Tony Allen, J.R. Giddens.  Garnett fulfilled some promise he must have made years ago when he and Cassell were teammates that they would both get rings someday.  Now that he has His Precious, the Celtics should cut him loose and bump Eddie House up to the 2-spot in the depth chart.  Tony Allen is not a great defender, nor is he a consistent offensive producer.  He just confuses Doc Rivers into making bad coaching moves.  Giddens was selected 30^th in the draft and he is easily one of the most athletic guys in the draft.  He grew up near me and my brother played against him.  The text message he sent me after the draft sums up his behavior problems better than I ever could, “I wonder how long until he stabs somebody.”  Maybe KG and others can straighten him out, but that’s a risk they don’t need.

 

Burning Questions: 

Will Boston have the same passion and intensity to repeat?  Garnett is the Niagara Falls of intensity, but now that the big three has that first ring, maintaining the energy needed to endure the rigors of an 82-game season along with another trying playoff run will be a challenge.

 

Can they hide from the Basketball Reaper?  He comes for us all.  The end of someone’s career is near.  KG and Pierce both seem to have at least three more seasons, but Allen seems more fragile.  Is the C’s can get someone to spell Jesus during the season, he should be able to contribute in the post-season.

 

Prediction for 2008-09:  NBA Finals -- The Celtics will be great again in the regular season, although not taking every game by the throat, causing them to slip a few games in their final record.  But unless another team can emerge as a powerhouse, Boston should be able to repeat as the Eastern Conference Champs in the regular season.  If health is not an issue, and that’s a big ‘if’ the Celtics will return to the NBA Finals but lose to a more complete team.

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Lakers: NBA Finals

 

Team Overview: The 2008 MVP should be ecstatic that more help is on the way.  Andrew Bynum is recovered from knee surgery but is seeking a healthy contract extension.  Kobe Bryant and the Lakers have the talent to be one of the most dominant teams of all time.   From Kobe to Farmar and Ariza, everyone will play a significant role.  The team is young, and should be hungry after coming so close in the Finals, then getting blown away in Game 6.  That’s a game you think about in the off-season while working out.

 

Guys they can’t lose: Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Phil Jackson.  Seeing how far the Lake-show could go without Bynum was impressive.  But they will not be good enough to get over the hump without the big man.  Pau Gasol played soft in the Finals but is still a great young player that will flourish as a power forward.  The most telling and fragile dynamic of this team will be Kobe and Jackson.  They have a history of problems and if Kobe starts trouble again for whatever reason, Jackson may look elsewhere for his record-tying 10^th NBA Title.  Without the Zen Master, the Lakers teamwork will suffer and break down like a hooptie on the highway.

 

Guys they should lose:  Vladimir Radmanovic, Lamar Odom.  The Radman is a waste of space save for 4-5 minutes of solid play.  Sasha Vujacic is also streaky, but provides a great defender and a reliable shooter.  Lamar Odom is a great player, but the way he plays is counter-productive to winning.  He is a guy who can put up decent numbers and help take pressure off other scorers, but the Lakers will not lack scoring.  Odom takes away 20-25 possessions from the guys who play with heart.  Odom floats around and when he does drive, it’s lackluster and easy to defend.

 

Burning Questions: 

Will the chemistry be right?  Somehow Kobe got along with this team well and if he can incorporate Bynum into that equation, nothing can stop this team.  If not, it will be a spectacular emotional and physical implosion that will make headlines for weeks.  Kobe needs national attention, so dropping his scoring average under 20 is unlikely.  That means someone will have to play for the team and not himself.  Jackson is the key in keeping everyone motivated.

 

Will the competitive West wear out the Lakers?  This argument only really applies when comparing teams from the West to teams from the East.  The Lakers, and any West team, only has to win four games against an Eastern team.  All the other West teams will be in the same or worse position so the Lakers can’t fret too much.

 

Will Kobe be healthy enough after the Olympics then surgery on his finger?  There is no way to answer this without some form of a time machine or magic mirror.  But knowing the uber-competitive Bryant, he will be back, miss about three to four weeks of the season and be rested for a shortened charge to the Title.

 

Prediction for 2008-09:  NBA Champs – The Lakers are too talented not too succeed next year.  They have depth, youth and experience, a superstar, a superb defense, a master coach and a great frontline.  That is plenty to dominate the NBA and win it all.