Risky Mock Draft

I have read through dozens of mock drafts predicting the order of the 2008 NBA Draft and not one has been very interesting.  I hope this will be different.  It is impossible to guess at what GMs and owners are thinking in the madness leading up to the Draft, but this is a representation of what I would do in their places.

Obviously I don't know every detail about teams and contracts, etc.  So cut me some slack and enjoy.

First of all, this is not the most talented draft.  A few players are sure to be stars, but I see more question marks than exclamation points.  As lucky as da' Bulls were in snatching the number 1 pick, they would be luckier in another year.  But I digress...

1.  Chicago Bulls -- Michael Beasley -- A team that was a popular pick for the Eastern Conference contenders in the pre-season, the Bulls have talent, but they also have youth and inexperience.  I'm not so sure adding another young weapon is the right move, but with so many free agents, why not start building around a versatile power-small forward?

If anyone is willing to give up a valuable big man (Elton Brand) I say take the trade.  But I don't think it will happen.

2. Memphis (via Miami) -- Derrick Rose -- Another team that is not far from Eastern Conference success (when healthy), I think they should try to shop the number 2 pick.  But in this draft they could not get as much as they want like.  Real Estate investors know this pain all too well right now.  Memphis also lost a talented fan-favorite in Juan Carlos Navarro to play in Spain (really?) so the need for a star ball-handler is greater than ever.

Even still, I would take a deal for Mike Miller while Memphis tries to move up and snatch a potential superstar point guard to pair with Rudy Gay.  Miami then gets a sharp-shooter with Wade and Marion and some cap space to try and sign a legit big man and become very dangerous.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves -- Jerryd Bayless -- One of the few teams early in the draft that has a reliable big man (Al Jefferson) and a host of young players to build around.  I see them taking Jerryd Bayless from 'Zona.  His scoring and exciting play COULD mesh with Brewer and Foye on the perimeter or it could lead to fighting for scoring chances.  Either way, the T-Wolves would need a stroke of genius (or some nice players from Boston for the donating of KG) in hopes of competing in the West.

4.  Milwaukee Bucks (via Seattle) -- OJ Mayo -- Does Seattle really need another 'number 1' guy on it's squad.  There is enough drama off the court with the impending move of the franchise, that putting two huge egos in the locker room would be a disaster.  Therefore, Seattle dumps the fourth pick into Milwaukee's lap, who needs a number 1 guy to go along with Bogut inside and the sheepish but effective Yi Jianlian.

Mayo is good enough to produce immediately and help rest the entire Bucks team that will be fatigued after a busy summer in Beijing  (Bogut-AUS/Yi-China/Redd-US).   Milwaukee will have talent and should be able to win games, but will not find a way again.  In the meantime, they will lose a draft pick for next year in order to move up this year.

5. Miami Heat (via Memphis)  -- Brook Lopez--  I hope Brook Lopez can play better than he can speak.  He went to Stanford and he and his brother, Robin, sound like they barely know English.   (His brother is worthless.  Why else would he ride his bro's coattails into the Draft instead of trying to be the stud at Stanford?)  But it don't take brains to play ball.  Combined with two potentially healthy superstars (we'll see about Wade this summer) and a great three-ball shooter and a team of young guys who saw a lot of playing time last season and I start liking Miami more and more.

6. New York Knicks-- Eric Gordon -- A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.  Although a thousand miles seems like an understatement of how far the Knicks need to travel before they compete in the NBA or any other basketball league.  They need to make sure the player they get has the right attitude, then evaluate talent.  They have talent on the roster (Crawford, Randolph, Curry, and Marbury) but only a couple players willing to put in the work to win (Lee, Balkman, Big Nate).

From Gordon's perspective, talk about going from the fire to the frying pan.  The turmoil he faced at Indiana (thanks Kelvin) will seem like middle school gossip compared to the nastiness of the Knick-scene.  He will be the success story of the draft if he can turn into a leader and more importantly for New Yorkers, a winner.

7. Seattle Supersonics -- DJ Augustin -- One thing the Sonics have is options.  They have a ton of picks in this and next year's draft.  They don't need 11 young players, so my guess (and this one I am sure I'm right about) they will deal some of their picks to move up or secure a big name player, probably a big man.  Augustin adds a dynamic point guard who can keep up with the lightning quick guards already in the league (Paul, Parker, etc.) and can fit in with the 2007 Rookie of the Year, Kevin Durant.

The two played at Texas as freshman.  Augustin played second fiddle while KD dominated the college basketball world.  This year Augustin made some music of his own leading Texas to success again (not easy for a guard to do).  Besides, having two players from Texas would help the fan-base when the team moves to Oklahoma.  I bet Mark Cuban will not be happy when the Mavs start losing fans.

8. Los Angeles Clippers -- Danilo Gallinari-- LA is the only place a guy could go after playing for "Armani Jeans".   And I thought the Texans was a dumb team name.  I bet the Clips would rather give this pick away for one of those health packs you pick up in a video game.  They have  a great team, but injuries hit it like a cannonball drilling a an expensive vase.  Last season was shattered.

Gallinari could develop into a fine player (Not glowing praise, I realize, but I don't trust European players who don't look tough enough to handle the rough NBA game) but the Clippers don't need him this year unless everyone has a relapse.  Either way, I'm more excited about Al Thornton playing a full year in the West and taking some of that LA shine off the other LA team.

9. Charlotte Bobcats-- DeAndre Jordan-- His name's Jordan, what more reason do you need?  i know people like Anthony Randolph, but you won't see his name until my "Most Over-Rated Draft Prospects" list comes out.  Jordan has raw talent but the guy is tough.  After drafting bench warmers (Morrison and May) they want someone who will actually lace up shoes instead of loafers.  Both Jordans will need some time, but the Bobcats need more than one player to turn this franchise around. 

10. New Jersey Nets-- Kevin Love-- The Nets started shedding fat last year when they dished Kidd to Dallas for Devin Harris.  They still have Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson but I would expect a big trade that gives the Nets more youth and cap space.  Jefferson is on borrowed time with the Nets.  If you believe the hype surrounding the Jay-Z/LeBron merger in a couple years when LBJ's contract expires, the Nets are a lame-duck until then with these old guys.  I don't know how good for business that would be if the move to Brooklyn doesn't work out.

Love provides some youth and size but does not fit the athletic mold the Nets want.  But they can't pass on a quality big man, only a few teams have that luxury.  Harris and Love give some energy to two guys who used to be all about energy, or could be a solid unit when the King arrives in a couple years.

11.  Dallas Mavericks (via Indiana) -- Brandon Rush-- In the biggest Draft day trade, the Mavs will unload Josh "pass the joint" Howard for some interior toughness in Jermaine O'Neal.  Some ancillary players will also be involved and as long as no one goes Deavean George on this deal, Dallas will add some muscle and a player that can straight-up-play.

Rush is one of the guys that we will look back on and wonder how he didn't go Top 3.  He lead his team to a National Championship at Kansas and has so many weapons he can fit in any system.

Dallas has exactly one year left with Kidd to win a championship and with a healthy O'Neal and young Rush, Nowitzki could get lead his Mavericks back to the Finals.

12. Sacramento Kings -- Roy Hibbert-- I don't know why I like Hibbert, but I think he is a perennial under-achiever.  I know that's not a compliment, but I think he has the means to end up a great big man.  I have a sneaking suspicion that Artest will be traded to either Dallas, New Jersey or the Lakers (for Odom and the Radman), but if the powers-that-be don't get a great offer for Captain Ron, the Kings are poised for a developing a solid team next year.

Like the Clips with Thornton, I'm more interested in seeing Kevin Martin develop and see if he can warrant an out-of-nowhere All-Star notch.

13. Portland Trailblazers-- Russell Westbrook-- I've seen him as high as five in some Mock's, but what for?  Am I the only one who still values collegiate performance?  Even though it has just become a one-year daycare in which most players loaf around the court because scouts and 'experts' love words like upside and dissect the difference in an inch or two.

He is an athletic player who can provide defense and should develop into a prime-time player in a few years.  He is not a guy who can dominate right now, which the Blazers don't need.  Roy is the leader of that team and Oden will be the second choice (if recovered) and LaMarcus Aldridge will continue to be the most under-rated big man in the West.  I love Portland's chances of making the playoffs next year as the new Hornets.

14. Golden State Warriors-- Joe Alexander--  I keep hearing about how good this guy is.  But he still seems a little Morrison-ish to me.  He is sans 'stache of course which is a few points his way, but he took over in college using sheer will.  Strength of Will doesn't translate too well in an 82 game season.  It translates to lots of trips to the trainer's table.

I do think he is a talented player who can fit a variety of roles and bring stability to an otherwise unstable roster.  I like the change of pace he would give the up-tempo free-wheeling Warriors.

I know this is not like most Mock Drafts you'll see and you will think I'm crazy about more than one pick.  But this is what I would like to see happen and would improve each team involved.  Predicting much past this is pretty irrelevant, but still fun.  Either way, I just don't have the time.  Enjoy the draft!

NBA Finals

               I wasn't sure I was going to get this blog off in time.  I had all the time in the world to write it, but more time sometimes seems like a curse because there is "always later" and eventually, that runs out.  But, I am beating the buzzer this morning with my NBA Finals prediction.

The Lakers made their run through the West look much easier than I expected.  The West was supposed to be the uber-competitive conference with every series going to seven games.  But the Lakers made it to the Finals with an impressive display of offensive, brilliantly timed streaks and home-court domination.  This was their path:

Den 4-0

Utah 4-2

SA 4-1

They have only played 15 games this post-season, whereas Boston played 14 in its first two series.  Fatigue will be a factor, unless one team man-handles the other and it's a sweep, which will not happen.

The Lake-show took advantage of a sluggish Spurs team that looked like it was ready to win another West crown, but just didn't have any oomph left.  I wonder if the Celtics will have any left after three grueling series.

This Celtics team has much more to lose than LA, which can be good and bad.  A team with nothing to lose plays without doubting themselves and makes few mistakes.  A team that is nervous and tight, might not take advantage of open looks, and not let the game flow, and that would be disastrous.

I know the Celtics have a great D and crash the boards well and all that.  But the Lakers dominated the Spurs on the glass, showing they can clean the window pretty well when needed.  And the Lakers have a much more explosive bench than the C's.

The Lakers bench brings energy and is dangerous with it's three-point shooting as well as very tough defense.  Compared to the above-average bench of Boston, LA stacks up favorably off the pine.

Home-court advantage (Which is 2-3-2 in the Finals) is always difficult to overcome.  But the Lakers have confidence on the road and I can't say the same for the Celtics.  LA won in San Antonio, and back-to-back games to close out Denver.  And they have the most cold-blooded player in the series, just hoping for a chance to hit a shot that kills the crowd.  (Yeah, Kobe)

I think both teams come out amped for Game 1, but the Lakers steal it and put the fear into Bosotn early, making the mental hill too tall for the role-players to overcome.  I want to take LA in 5, but I think Boston is too tough to drop 3 straight on the road, then coming back to TD Banknorth Garden will give them a boost in Game 6.  Therefore....

LAKERS IN 7

Congrats to Kobe on finally stepping out of Shaq's shadow, now only 5 more rings until you can get out of Jordan's.