I must take a second and pat myself on the back for some pretty close predictions from last round. I nailed the Pistons and Celtics series with the correct number of games. I was one game off of the Lakers series, and I hit the games, but missed the team (Which is a big deal, I am aware) in the Spurs/Hornets series. Not too shabby.
Now for the next round.
In the East...
#1 Boston vs. #2 Detroit
What a clash of contrast this match-up is. The big 3 who are venturing into uncharted waters as a unit, verse the team that has been together longer than most bands. Personal experience verse team experience.
It's hard to forget that Boston has not won on the road in the playoffs. But let's try. And remember, the battles these teams fought against one another in the regular season.
December 19: Lost at home 85-87.
January 5: Won in Detroit 92-85
March 5: Won at home 90-78.
In the two Boston wins, the Celts got huge games by KG, then Glen "Big Baby" Davis. In the Detroit victory, the Pistons shot very well from deep, hitting 45% of it's threes. The other games were in the 30s.
It would be easy to say, Boston needs to dominate the post while Detroit just needs to hit shots for each team to win, but we all know there is more to it than that.
Detroit has developed a deep bench during the season, giving their starters time off down the stretch to better prepare the young guys for the playoffs. The Pistons have already reaped the benefits with the stellar play of Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell when Billups and McDyess suffered injuries.
Maxiell is much better now than he was in the regular season and Amir Johnson has also developed into a reliable post player. Two options Flip Saunders can and will use to help neutralize Boston's big men. And the combo of Billups and Stuckey allows the Pistons to keep pressure on Boston at the point guard position all game.
For Boston, containing three-point situation is a little trickier because they are not confined to a small area. And Detroit has a plethora of players who can hit the long ball. Realistically, Boston has to play solid, close-out defense and limit wide open shots while making sure to rebound and then simply hope Detroit misses shots.
That's the first reason I'm taking Detroit in this series. Detroit has tangible tactics it can use to stop Boston's greatest offensive strength, Boston does not.
The second reason is the bench. We saw in both Game 7's in the Conference Semi-Finals how crucial play off the bench can be. PJ Brown was always in the right spot for what seemed like back-breaking buckets when Cleveland needed stops the most. Cleveland had nothing off the bench. Other than LeBron, they really had nothing from it's starters either though.
But the point is, the stars get 90% of the win, but who can step up and be the unexpected hero to get that last 10%. Detroit has way more options, albeit young options, than Boston. And Doc Rivers has not shown any faith in his bench this post-season, so he is more likely just to make his stars press and try to do too much.
It won't work, and oh yeah, Boston can't win on the road.
DETROIT PISTONS IN 6
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