Monday, March 31, 2008

Drafting 101

With the end of the basketball seasons looming like a weekend with the in-laws.  It's never too early to start thinking about next season.  And you can't start a new year of hoops without the draft. (FYI: the draft is June 26th at Madison Square Garden)
The draft is widely considered a make-or-break situation for most franchises.  Sure, teams like Detroit who have more depth than the Pacific Ocean aren't going to implode with one or two bad picks (although they never make bad picks).  However, the struggling franchises need to nab a player who will be reliable and successful for years in the pros.
The two most dangerous teams with potentially top 5 picks are the Miami Heat and L.A. Clippers.  Both teams already have star players a youngster can learn from and can spend time developing. None of the players in this year's draft have the combo of ability and maturity to lead a team their first year in the league.
Putting a dominant rebounder and force on the inside like Michael Beasley with Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion makes Miami a much improved team.  (if they can stay healthy)  The Clippers already have a solid team and adding a dynamic guard to compliment the inside force of Chris Kaman and Elton Brand, along with the scoring ability of Corey Maggette and current rookie, Al Thornton would make them a scary team in the West.  If any opportunity arose to draft, or trade for Memphis point guard Derrick Rose or Texas point guar DJ Augustin, L.A. would be foolish to pass it up.
After those two teams, no team should expect a pick to significantly change the future of a franchise, there is not a ton of talent in this draft.  However, you can't teach size and there are several talented big men turning pro this year.  This is a great chance for a team like Seattle, who has some potential superstar athletes already in place with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, to draft some size.  Brook Lopez from Stanford is a dynamic 7-footer who would give Seattle some stability inside.
Other than drafting a franchise player, teams with a top pick should look to build chemistry.  Find a guy that could fill a void around the all-star break.  For teams later in the draft, the teams that make the playoffs this season, they can find guys that may need some time to develop.  Most teams are not complete.  Everyone has a whole somewhere.  Find a guy who can be made to fit that gap off the bench.  Getting quality guys that can back up the starters is sometimes more important than trying to draft a "go to guy".  Injuries happen all the time and the teams that are prepared for them with these insurance policies, will still be able to win games in the middle of the season and allow the main guys time to recover.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

MVP Update

This is just an update to my previous post about the 3 strongest NBA MVP candidates.
If anyone had any doubt if Chris Paul should be ahead of LeBron James in the NBA MVP race, those doubts had better been assuaged Wednesday night when Chris Paul's Hornets beat LeBron James' Cavs 100-99 in Cleveland.  
If you missed it, King James made a strong move to the bucket and like usual, could not be stopped as he scored at the rim giving Cleveland a one-point lead with about 7 seconds remaining.  On the Hornets' last possession, Paul drives into the paint and faces resistance, but instead of muscling up a tough shot, (which he could have done and it may have gone in) he dumps the ball behind him to David West wide open for a 15-foot jumper.  He nails it and New Orleans wins again.
Paul made a smart move by deferring to a guy who is automatic from that distance in the clutch.  LeBron has yet to learn how to make his teammates an extension of his own abilities and use everyone to win.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Most Valued Player?

At the end of the season, one of the most compelling debates is always 'who deserves the MVP award?'  There is somehow an unwritten formula that averages a player's stats, his stats in relation to the talent on his team, and his team's winning percentage.  Of course, the people who don't ever watch the games just want to give it to the best guy on the best team.  Sure, we could do that, that way no one would have to think.  Sweet.
Amazing how three little words can cause so much uproar. 
The prime candidates in this season's race have been narrowed to Kobe Bryant (LAL), LeBron James (CLE) and Kevin Garnett (BOS).  Recently, two more players have played their hats into the ring; Chris Paul (NOH) and Tracy McGrady (HOU).  These are all phenomenal players and all would be deserving of the award.  But who should nab the hardware and why?
The basic argument for KG is he turned around the Boston franchise after a horrible year and turned the Celtics into the front-runner for the NBA Championship in June.  His numbers are not comparable to the others, but they are balanced. The reason he will not and should not win, is because without him, Boston is still a pretty good team.  That's not his fault, but at the same time, he can't get all the credit then.
Tracy McGrady has played exceptional since his injury, but he did not take over and control the team.  Rafer Alston is the MVP of the Rockets, McGrady just gets the numbers and the highlights.  I love T-Mac, but he is not worthy.
Now we are down to the three top contenders; Bryant, James and Paul.  This is almost too close to call, but I give the edge to Chris Paul.  Kobe and LeBron get the ball at the end of the game and everyone knows why, they could score on anyone, really, two or three anyones at once.  BUT, when the ball gets in their hands late in the game, their teams stop moving and watch.  They have to go one-on-five, because they are where teamwork goes to die.
When CP3 has the rock in the late minutes, he knows how to score huge baskets, just check his fourth quarter numbers against top teams, but his strength lies in his ability to work his teammates into good shots and opportunities allowing them to still be active participants late in the game.
Paul's ability translates to every inch of the floor.  Kobe and LeBron only influence the path in front of them, even if it is almost impossible to stop.
With one shot left, I give the edge to Kobe and LeBron, but with two minutes to go and losing, I'll take CP3.  He provides his team with the MOST VALUE.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Win now or win later?

In the NBA's Western Conference, several teams that made blockbuster trades just before the deadline have either been praised or criticized for those deals.  The Lakers traded virtually nothing for an All-Star power forward in Pau Gasol.  Obviously, he has helped turn the squad into a front-runner for the top spot in the West.  Other teams were not able to find such great deals and had the option of 1. staying with their current roster and hoping to produce better results than last year, or 2. make a high-risk, high-reward deal that could take the franchise to the promise land in June-- or lead them into a dark era for many years. 
Dallas and Phoenix were the two other teams that made the big moves.  BUT, so far the desired result of racking up those ever-valuable W's has not been achieved in either team's case.
With the Suns, they sacrificed arguably the most exciting show on hardwood since the old run-and-gun days and years of team chemistry that has not only won a ton of games in the past two seasons, but had a few more things fallen into place during last season's playoffs (Ex: Robert Horry getting punished for hip-checking Steve Nash and costing Phoenix a game in a very tight series) they could be trying to defend their crown this year instead of looking for a way to "breakthrough".  As it is, Steve Kerr decided to roll the dice and bring in one of the most dominant playoff performers to ever play the game.  Giving up an all-around stud like Shawn Marion had to be a tough call.  I mean the guy did everything; scored, crashed the boards, hustled on both ends, had a great basketball I.Q. and was a great compliment to Nash and Stoudemire. 
So Shaquille O'Neal traded the beaches of Miami for the waterless beach of Phoenix.  The Suns followed the trade by going 6-8 in about the next month of play.  Granted a couple games were without Shaq, but there was certainly an uproar of second guessing.  However, winning the last four and with a huge three-game stretch against Hou, Det and Bos, the critics will be ready to pass further judgment on the acquisition of the aging center if Phoenix cannot come way with a victory or two.
Similrly, Dallas made a deal that sacrificed an energetic young playmaker for experience and post-season performance.  Although Jason Kidd's post-season resume is far from O'Neal's, his mental toughness and leadership are the two biggest flaws of a Maverick team that made history last year by being the first one seed to get bumped by an eight seed.  Not the kind of history Dallas owner Mark Cuban had in mind.  So he joined Steve Kerr out on the same, trade away your future for right now, maybe, limb.  Much like the Suns, Dallas has a decent but not spectacular record since the deal with big games looming.
Before hindsight finds it's dusty, old bifocals on and sets it's sight on these epic trades, why have so many people written off these teams as contenders?  Why has everyone jumped on the Lakers bandwagon and now the Houston craze (can you believe 'craze' was the best synonym for bandwagon, it definitely beat out spinach, what?).  I know not everyone is counting out Phoenix and Dallas, they are still solid teams, but listening to predictions on TV and radio, general opinion is way down.
These teams did NOT make these trades for the regular season.  I doubt anyone thought the race to just make it into the post-season would be so fierce.  This year, seven teams have already matched the total wins of the eighth seed from last season.  Typically, both teams could have coasted into a mid- to -high seed while learning to mesh and no one is going to second guess these trades so quickly.  However, because they are riding the fringe a little tighter than fans hoped and analysts thought, the easiest target for finger-pointing is obviously the thing that made the most headlines recently.  This is foolish.  As long as both squads qualify for the playoffs, they should not care where they finish.
From first to ninth, only 6 games separate the teams.  That means no one team is that much better (according to records) than any other team.  Every lower seed could win in the West and no one should be shocked.  The point of those trades were to win seven-game series against specific teams in the West.  For Phoenix, not one team is going to want to deal with the guard combo of Nash and Barbosa and the inside domination of Stoudemire and Shaq (who just keep looking better).  Who could consistently stop that?  
Dallas' outlook is not so rosy.  Unlike the Phoenix-Miami deal that gives the Suns a legitimate shot at hoisting the trophy at the Finals, Dallas did not become a more dangerous team.  They became more consistent, but that is just going to mean they lose by the same margin in their four first-round losses.  Thats right, first round and Dallas will peace out.
Both trades gambled away several stellar years of play from guys who are extremely talented.  Both trades returned experienced veterans who know how to win.  But Dallas made the mistake of mistaking experience, leadership and talent with domination.  Jason Kidd can't take over a game.  He can't even be relied on to hit a big shot.  Shaq IS dominant.
Phoenix made a great move and has a fantastic opportunity for a short period of time until Shaq finally hits his expiration date.  Dallas will be good, but not great for a couple years max, then start drooling over the superb play of Devin Harris in another team's uniform and remember the deal that sent him away.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Welcome

This is my first blog entry so I will make this quick.  I will write once a week about a different sports topic that is on my mind.  It may be as broad an entire league or as specific as one game by one player.  It will just depend on what strikes me as important.  For now, I will focus on professional basketball followed by baseball and so on.  Please feel free to let me know what you think or if you just want to chat sports.  I hope you enjoy.