2008-2009 NBA Predictions

 

NBA Finals:  Lakers d. Celtics

 

West Finals: Lakers d. Rockets West Second Round:  Rockets d. Hornets West Second Round:  Lakers d. Suns West First Round: Lakers d. Nuggets West First Round: Rockets d. Spurs West First Round: Hornets d. Trailblazers West First Round: Suns d. Jazz

East Finals: Celtics d. Raptors East Second Round: Celtics d. 76ers East Second Round: Raptors d. Pistons East First Round: Celtics d. Heat East First Round: Pistons d. Wizards East First Round: Raptors d. Cavaliers East First Round: 76ers d. Magic

West Final Standings – 2008-2009 1. Lakers 2. Rockets 3. Jazz 4. Hornets 5. Trailblazers 6. Suns 7. Spurs 8. Nuggets

East Final Standings – 2008-2009 1. Celtics 2. Pistons 3. Raptors 4. 76ers 5. Magic 6. Cavaliers 7. Wizards 8. Heat

Warriors Mavericks Clippers Kings Grizzlies T’Wolves Thunder

Pacers Hawks Bulls Bobcats Bucks Nets Knicks

Team Capsules and Predictions: POR/MIA/NYK

Portland Trailblazers: Missed Playoffs

Team Overview: I have officially declared this team the “Team to Watch” for 2008-2009.  They surpassed most people’s expectations last year going 41-41 but still missing the playoffs.  The way these young players attack the rim, they get high percentage shots and will earn many trips to the free throw line.  Not to mention create a lot of exciting dunks and highlights.  Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge took a major step in their careers last season proving they can win games and lead a team.  Now they have more talent behind them and will have to continue to develop as stars for the Blazers to take the next step to the playoffs.

Guys they can’t lose: Roy, Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw.  Roy and Aldridge are the leaders and stars.  Despite their youth, they have taken the team in their back how they perform will be how the Blazers perform.  Greg Oden is supposed to be the difference maker and from how dominant he has looked at times in pre-season, he should make a huge impact.  Don’t judge Oden’s influence by his offensive numbers, his biggest impact will be felt in the paint on defense.  Travis Outlaw is the guy the Blazers rely on late in games to hit the clutch shots.  He won at least two games last season by hitting crucial shots.

Guys they should lose:  Steve Blake.  Blake is just blocking the way for Sergio Rodriguez, who was snubbed from the Spanish National Team, to take a bigger role with the team.  Rodriguez is a dynamic guard who can hit the three, drive to the hole, but mostly finds an open player.  Blake is not a bad point guard, but he has limited potential and should not see more minutes than Rodriguez.  And the more minutes Nate McMillan can give Jerryd Bayless, the quicker he can develop and help the team.

Burning Questions:

Are the Trailblazers too young to make the playoffs?  The average age of this team is under 24.  In the NBA, youth does not typically win.  Veterans win games and make deep runs into the playoffs.  But there is an exception to every rule and the Blazers will be this year’s exception.

Will the Portland second string be able to build on leads?  Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez make an electric tandem in the backcourt.  Making exciting plays are crucial to energize the crowd and excite the starters watching from the bench.  Fernandez has show incredible vision on the court and a fantastic leaping ability with a knack for finishing at the rim.  He should make a serious case for the 6^th Man Award.  Joel Przybilla is the backup center and will be essential for keeping Oden rested and playing important minutes when Oden gets into foul trouble.  This second unit will be better than most in the West and will be key in making the playoffs.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Blazers will be the surprise of the West.  They have more athleticism and dynamic players than most teams.  Brandon Roy does not have the pressure of scoring every play and other players can carry the team when he struggles.  This environment should create confidence within Roy and make him a superstar in the league.  In the Northwest Division, over-taking Utah is not likely without major injury help, but passing Denver for second is a realistic goal and beating up on Minnesota and Oklahoma City should help the Blazers pad their record for a pretty good playoff seed.  The Blazers may not get much national coverage on the West Coast, but keep an eye on this time and check out as many highlights as you can find.

Miami Heat: Missed Playoffs

Team Overview:  The Heat are almost guaranteed to be the most improved team in the NBA.  After winning 15 games, anything the Heat do this year will be better than last season.  Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion are both stars and the “scrubs” saw a lot of minutes last year.  You can’t buy experience like that, plus the Heat earned the second pick and selected the talented but misguided Michael Beasley.

Guys they can’t lose: Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem.  Wade proved how important he is to the Heat.  By suffering through the season with injuries, the Heat were without their superstar and suffered a horrible season.  If Wade can stay healthy and play like he showed he is capable of in the Olympics, the Heat will have one of the best players in the NBA.  The Heat need Marion to be versatile and fill the holes the Heat have.  Right now, this means rebounding and guarding bigger players.  The Heat will also rely heavily on Beasley to score and rebound and provide some low post presence when necessary.  Haslem will be relied on to be a leader and force in the paint.  The Heats biggest weakness is a lack of big man but Halsem could go a long way to shoring up that weakness.

Guys they should lose:  Unless Marion becomes a headache, no one on the roster is detrimental to the team chemistry or gets in the way of another player stepping up.  Marion has the potential to be one of the best all-around player in the league, or he can be one of the biggest distractions.  Rumors for trading Marion have already circulated but unless the Heat can get a great price, they should just stick with him and try to make him happy.  The Heat would collapse if it lost Marion so they have to gamble on the fact that he plays hard, works hard in practice and provides positive leadership for the rest of the players.

Burning Questions:

Will teams underestimate the Heat?  The Heat were the worst team in the NBA last season but everyone saw Wade play in the Olympics and they remember that he can take over a game.  While a few might underestimate the Heat, no one should underestimate Dwyane Wade.  He is the best player in the NBA at attacking the paint and getting to the line in clutch situations.  The only way to beat the Heat is to slow down Wade and no one will forget how important that is.  However, no one knows how to slow Wade down so that might not even matter.

Will the young players step up enough for the Heat to make the playoffs?  The Heat will be relying on not only Beasley, but Mario Chalmers to play well in a backup role running the point.  Joel Anthony and Daequan Cook will both have to play well to fill their roles as reserves.  Cook is a lights-out shooter but streaky shooter.  Joel Anthony racked up a lot of experience last season that should prove valuable.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Heat benefit from a weak division with the Bobcats, Hawks, the injury-prone Wizards.  But the East is vastly improved from a year ago and the return of Dwyane Wade and the addition of Shawn Marion are two major reasons for that.  The Heat are my surprise pick for next year.  If the Heat make the playoffs, Dwyane Wade should be a lock for MVP and depending on how well Beasley plays and the impact he makes, he should be a strong contender for rookie of the year.

New York Knicks:  Missed Playoffs

Team Overview: The Knicks are in shambles and an embarrassment to the NBA.  But that could have changed with a few huge moves, namely the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as Head Coach.  Drafting Danilo Gallinari was a big mistake.  I’m not sure what the Knicks expected from the young player, but it seems like every year, someone takes a European player and he does nothing.  Most of the European players in the league have been successes without being drafted in the top 10.

Guys they can’t lose: David Lee, Nate Robinson.  These are the only guys who put the necessary effort into consistent winning in the NBA.  They may not be the most talented players on the team, but they work hard and play well as teammates.

Guys they should lose:  Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph.  These guys were the ‘leaders’ of last year’s team.  They are the guys with the talent and size that they should be NBA stars.  But they lack the drive and determination to get into shape and understand the dynamics of winning.  Marbury is a great player, but he is selfish, and while he might rack up the stats, the win column will always be neglected.  Curry has the super-human ability to pop a medicine ball with his ass.  While impressive, does not translate well to the hardwood.  He is too slow and lazy to thrive in the D’Antoni system and should not see as many minutes as he is used to.  Randolph still has potential but will likely be discouraged that he too does not fit in the run-and-gun style the Knicks will employ this season.

Burning Questions:

Will the Knicks develop enough chemistry to overcome talent deficiencies?  Every bad team has an excuse for the next two years.  Prepare to hear this line over and over, “We’re just freeing cap space to get LeBron, Wade, or Bosh.”  Unfortunately, there are more than three bad teams and at least one of those players will stay put.  I doubt the Knicks will be able to get any of those players unless they win some games and build some excitement for the young talent.

How will D’Antoni’s offense affect the Knicks win-loss record?  The Knicks are almost guaranteed to score more points this season.  But just as surely, they will give up more points.  The fans might love to see the players run the floor, but they cannot stop other teams from scoring, so expect the Knicks to lose a lot of high scoring games.  But losing was expected anyway, might as well provide some highlight plays while they rebuild.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs (29-53) – The Knicks have low expectations.  But Mike D’Antoni is expected to turn the franchise around.  Unfortunately for D’Antoni, he took over the franchise as it was headed over a cliff and it will be a long and trying process to turn the club around.  Knicks fans have some solace in the fast-paced offense that will light up the scoreboard, but will be endlessly frustrated with the gaudy amount of points the Knicks will surrender.  Not to mention the Knicks will battle in the toughest division in the East, against the Raptors, 76ers and Celtics.  A realistic goal is to finish fourth ahead of the Nets and try to turn that into a bargaining chip for free agents.  The Knicks need some patience from its fans and maybe an unexpected player to break out.  The NBA can be unpredictable, and chemistry dominates but the Knicks need a miracle to even see the playoffs with binoculars.

Team Capsules and Predictions: PHI/ATL

Philadelphia 76ers: First Round loss to Detroit

Team Overview:  The 76ers made two huge moves this off-season.  The first was re-signing Andre Iguodala and the second was signing Elton Brand.  Iggy gained confidence and leadership experience as the go-to guy last year.  He developed into a star and led the team to the playoffs and even challenged Detroit in the first round.  Lou Williams showed flashes of greatness reminding me of Devin Harris and Samuel Dalembert is improving but the addition of Brand in the post will help his production.  Philly also has several role players that can eat up good minutes and fit within the team mentality.

Guys they can’t lose:  Iguodala, Brand, Andre Miller, Williams.  Iggy and Brand are obvious.  But the point guard combo of Miller and Williams may be the most dynamic in the East.  Miller has experience and knows how to run a team.  He will be able to lead quietly with his play and allow the stars to flourish.  Williams can come into the game and provide quickness and excitement.  He is fun to watch and can make tough shots.  He averaged double-digits in points and is nearly impossible to guard.  That duo begins to wreak havoc on defenses and make scoring much easier for the stars.

Guys they should lose:  Donyell Marshall and Maurice Cheeks.  Quick, name one team Marshall has helped win.  Marshall is a lazy player who floats around the perimeter.  He disguises himself as a three-point threat but realistically, he will just be eating minutes that should be going to hustle players or young guys who need time to develop.  As far as Maurice Cheeks, he does not necessarily need to be fired, but he has a habit of talking to fans during games and that must be distracting to him and his team.  Watch the game Mo and focus on the next play.  Don’t be a Chatty Cathy with the season-ticket holders.

Burning Questions:

Who will be the leader and how will he handle the role?  Iguodala has been the man on this team since Iverson left and if he can gain the trust and respect of Brand, he could emerge as a superstar in the NBA.   A big man could be the leader, but there will likely be a power struggle if Brand tries to take the leader role from Iguodala.

Will late-season success carry over to this year?  The Sixers made a great run last year and almost caught the Pistons off-guard in what would have been a huge upset.  If that momentum is carried into off-season workouts and training camp, the Sixers should have motivation to play with intensity and would yield many wins early in the season.  However, Philly plays in a tough division with Boston and Toronto where wins will be hard-fought every night.

2008-2009 Prediction – Second Round -- The Sixers showed great chemistry and determination last season.  As long as Brand does not upset one of those, the fans that booed Santa Claus could be in for a treat.  If guys like Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Dalembert continue to develop and play like they did at times last year, this team will have plenty of players to rely on.  Then it becomes a matter of who steps up in key situations.  The 76ers are certainly on the rise in the East and have a great future ahead of them.  This year will open some eyes and show the beginning of a new era in the East.  With Boston only having another year or two left on top, it will be between Philly and Toronto to step up as the next East powerhouse.

Atlanta Hawks: First Round loss to Boston

Team Overview:  The Hawks surprised everyone by making the playoffs, but only winning 37 games was not that surprising.  What was more surprising was the Hawks taking the Celtics to seven games in the playoffs.  But this was not a great team.  Sure, they have talent and athleticism, but that’s it.  With Josh Childress bolting for Greece, the Hawks were left without a key role player.  But the main unit remains intact, led by veteran Mike Bibby at point.  Joe Johnson is a good scorer, but he is no superstar and will need help to lead the Hawks back to the post-season.

Guys they can’t lose: Johnson, Horford, Josh Smith.  Horford was my pick for Rookie of the Year, because his impact on a successful team was more significant than Durant’s impact on a terrible team.  Horford gave the Hawks a reliable post presence on both ends and a tough mentality that other players can see.  Smith is a dynamic player who could go for a triple-double any night.  But he could also get shut down any given night.  He needs to develop consistency but he is still an exciting player that puts fans in the seats making Atlanta a tough place to play.

Guys they should lose:  It’s tough to say any guy is negative for this team.  Right now, they have a lot of youth that could develop into winning players.  Marvin Williams was successful and earned a lot of respect in the clubhouse.  He shoots the ball well from inside the arc and attacks the lane, which earns him a lot of trips to the free throw line, from which he shoots over 80%.  Mike Bibby is not a great shooter, but he has been in tough games before and can take some of the burden off Johnson, while helping the young players gain confidence.  Still, this team is missing depth and needs to make a trade to compete this year.

Burning Questions:

Can the Hawks keep up with the improved East?  A big knock on this team was that it would have not even come close to making the playoffs in the West.  But giving the Celtics a scare in the first round helped their national respect.  But many teams in the East are improved and the Hawks may not be able to compete.  They are too young and not consistent enough to win big games.  The Hawks have a solid home-court advantage, but that will only steal them a couple wins.

How big of a loss was Josh Childress?  Not only did Childress provide energy off the bench, he had the best field goal percentage (57%) on the team, by a wide margin.  That is efficient scoring that someone will have to pick up or the Hawks will find themselves down by a few extra points every game.  Childress was also a good rebounder and defensive player who did not turn the ball over much.  If someone can step up and provide those lost buckets, it won’t be a major loss, but that player is not on the roster, yet.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs (36-46) -- The Hawks are about as good as they were last season.  They have more experience and the younger players now know what it takes to compete in the NBA.  But other teams have improved at a greater pace.  And with wins not as easy to come by and other teams getting more of them against West teams, the Hawks will be left of the post-season.

Team Capsules and Predictions: PHX/DEN

Phoenix Suns: First Round loss to Spurs

Team Overview: Steve Kerr rolled the dice with a major trade last season and many people considered the move a total failure, grouping it with Dallas’ big trade blunder.  I thought at the time, and I still believe, the trade for Shaquille O’Neal was the right move.  Shawn Marion is a fantastic player, but he was fed up with the Suns.  He needed out and Kerr saw a chance to bring in the most dominant center, maybe even the best player since Jordan.  Besides, the Suns had peaked, gone as far as they could with Nash, Marion and Stoudemire and Kerr want to win a Title.

Guys they can’t lose:  Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Shaq, Grant Hill.  This team is getting up and age and several of the key parts only have a couple years left in the NBA.  In fact, The Big Cactus said he will retire when his contract is up in two years.  If you take a moment to think about the successful teams in the NBA, you’ll realize they are almost exclusively composed of veterans.  Experience wins in the NBA, and the Suns have plenty.  With Barbosa, Bell and Stoudemire, they have youth and energy to match the young talent in the West.  With the addition on Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez (who will be a bust) the Suns can compete with a variety of opponents.

Guys they should lose:  No one on the roster hurts the team chemistry or cannot fill a valuable role.  But Terry Porter is the biggest question mark, next to Shaq’s age and health (which I predict will not be a question for long), as relatively new head coach.  Shaq liked Mike D’Antoni and was not happy to see him go.  Porter must overcome the inherent resentment and take control of this team.  And if the most exciting team over the past five years can lock down defensively, they could be close to unbeatable. 

Burning Questions:

Will age and health keep the Suns from a deep playoff push?  Grant Hill stayed healthy all season, Shaq was out of shape and hurt most of last year, and Nash has chronic back pain.  But I trust Shaq and Nash to push themselves back on the court to a competitive level.  Hill and Nash desperately want to win it all.  Shaq wants to be thought of as the greatest and he would LOVE to eliminate Kobe and the Lakers.

Can Terry Porter lead the Suns to play stout defense and still play to the player’s strengths?  Stoudemire is excited for the next year and I know he is not completely objective, but you have to think something is going right.  Shaq will take pressure off Stoudemire and Amare should have his best year in the NBA.  Stat is surrounded by great passers and guys who can score and might get some consideration for MVP is the Suns win their way to the top of the West.

2008-2009 Prediction –Second Round – This many great, veteran players could be a championship team.  And the Suns nemesis San Antonio Spurs are poised for a down year, which would allow the Suns a clearer path to the Finals.  But the Lakers are too good and have a complete team with a guy who can take over a game without help, unlike Stoudemire who needs someone to get him the ball.  Assuming the team stays healthy, the Lakers-Suns story line will be one of the most compelling in recent memory, but I doubt it will go the way of Phoenix.

 

Denver Nuggets: First Round loss to Lakers

Team Overview: Criticism flowed into Denver with the garage sale price the Nuggets received for Marcus Camby.  The Nuggets biggest concern is defense.  Its second biggest concern is defense.  With shipping out Camby, Denver did not help their two biggest concerns. Nene Hilario is coming back and Kiki Vandeweghe probably expects him to return to his level of play before he was diagnosed.  If Nene can play consistently in the post, the loss of Camby will not look as bad.  Either way, the Nuggets are far from a complete team and need a guy who can play lock-down defense.

Guys they can’t lose: Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Nene.   Without Melo and A.I., the Nuggets are a team who can’t play defense and can’t score.  At least those guys solve one of those issues.  Melo needs to establish himself as the team leader and lead by example on the defensive end of the court.  With someone like Iverson who has been such a fixture in the NBA for so long, that might be intimidating for Anthony, but he needs to stop making offcourt mistakes and convince his team to fight on defense.  Nene was emerging as a great big man before he was diagnosed with cancer.  If he can regain that confidence and swagger in the paint, the Nuggets will be tougher on both ends.

Guys they should lose: J.R. Smith, Chris Anderson.  Smith could get onto the ‘can’t lose’ list with a year of consistent play.  Not taking bad shots and turning the ball over are the two keys that would turn Smith into a serious weapon instead of just a streaky three-point shooter.  His athleticism is certainly an asset, but until he can prove not to be a liability when he isn’t on fire, he’s not going to help the team win games.  As far as Anderson goes, what were the Nuggets thinking?  The Birdman, fresh off his suspension for violating the NBA’s substance abuse policy for using what is speculated as cocaine, is a walking disaster.  Or maybe a dunking disaster would be more appropriate.  He is an electrifying player, but his issues will inevitably distract the team in the clubhouse more than his excitement will help.

Burning Questions:

Defense?  Anyone?  I understand how it could be discouraging to play defense when the guy next to you lets his man go to the hoop at will.  After watching the opposing team shoot open jumpers and practice layup drills at your expense, you stop working hard every possession.  And in the NBA, that will kill your chances of success.

Is Melo worth his extension?  Unlike LeBron, Bosh, and D-Wade, Melo signed an extension so he would not be a free agent in the summer of 2010.  He is locked for an extra year with a player option after that.  Clearly a great decision for Melo, because he won’t have to compete with three of league’s premier stars for big money.  But for Denver, if the team can’t figure out a way to play some defense and win some games, Melo could get disgruntled being locked on a mediocre team.  He desperately wants an NBA Title and trade rumors have already circulated.  How he plays next year will be significant for both parties’ futures.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round  -- Anyone who follows the NBA knows the Nuggets weakness.  If they can figure out a way to play solid defense, the landscape in the West shifts, but this still isn’t a good enough team to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Team Capsules and Predictions: WAS/TOR

Washington Wizards:  First Round loss to Cleveland

Team Overview: This team is like the nemesis to the Cavaliers.  The Cavs always end up winning like the hero in a Hollywood movie.  That would make the Wizards the villain.  But to Wizards fans, every year is a new chance to prove theirs is a team not to be taken lightly.  Every team has a Big 3 these days, but the combo of Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are three of the most talented players in the East.  There is no lack of skill on the Wizards but team chemistry is the other half of the puzzle that Eddie Jordan must fit together for Washington to improve on it’s recent playoff success.

Guys they can’t lose:  Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.  These two guys have shown that not only can they take a back seat to make a star better (Arenas).  But if that star gets hurt, they can step up and lead the team to victories.  These two guys are versatile and can compliment any group of players.  With a quick point guard and a good rebounding big man, these two could flourish even further.  Nick Young has shown explosiveness and the ability to control the tempo of games.  The combo of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood down low provides consistent play and reliable, but not great, defense.

Guys they should lose:  Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson.  Speaking of players who destroy team chemistry, these guys are like the guys at the rec center who you know have talent but you hope are never on your team.  When you know you might only touch the ball once every five possessions, the motivation to play defense disappears.  And the drive to work hard on offense to get good shots for teammates also goes away.  It is no wonder the Wizards actually improve when Arenas is hurt and off the court.  He is a great player, but he kills the productivity of the other four guys on the court.  Stevenson is like his ball-hogging apprentice who is joining the family business of looking good but killing his team.

Burning Questions:

How long will Arenas be out after knee surgery?  According to reports, he is supposed to be back on the court the middle of December, but with his recent history, I doubt he will play in 2008.  I’m not saying that’s a bad thing because of the negative effect he causes on the rest of the team, but he can score and any other significant injuries would set this team back more than they can recover from.

Can the Wizards beat the Cavaliers?  Just like the Spurs recently in the West have bested the Suns, the Wizards are limited by their inability to eliminate LeBron James and Co.  The method of calling him out did not work well last year.  I would suggest the “nobody respects us angle” and see if they can get LeBron to relax.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round – The Wizards have experience, size, scoring ability and youth to provide energy.  But Eddie Jordan needs to control his players and establish a pecking order that puts Butler and Jamison is charge.  More importantly, Butler and Jamison need to establish themselves as leaders on the court.  The Wizards have plenty of role players and if one of them emerges as a star, the Wizards could be tough to beat.  As the team looks now, it is primed for another solid season followed by a disappointing early exit from the playoffs.

 

Toronto Raptors: First Round loss to Orlando

Team Overview: The Raptors have one of, if not the biggest teams in the NBA.  Three of the Raptors starting five will be 6-10 or taller.  Toronto lost T.J. Ford to acquire Jermaine O’Neal.  Ford was a victim of multiple neck injuries in the past couple seasons.  Ford lost some of his edge and was more timid driving to the hoop, which was a major strength.  O’Neal was a dominant player before suffering a major knee injury.  If fully rehabilitated, the Raptors would be nearly unstoppable in the post.  If not, they just acquired a very expensive bench warmer.

Guys they can’t lose:  Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, Jose Calderon.  Chris Bosh became the pleasant surprise of the Olympics for Team USA.  He showed incredible versatility and could be stepping into the upper echelon of NBA superstars.  With O’Neal playing the center, Bosh will be free to play against smaller defenders and avoid double-teams.  That tandem in the post will be the most dominant since Tim Duncan and David Robinson.  Jose Calderon has a great ability to get other players involved while taking advantage of his own scoring chances.

Guys they should lose:  This team has no negative players.  Even Andrea Bargnani is developing into a reliable player.  This is close to a complete team.  Delfino and Kapono provide range from downtown.  Humphries and Moon provide energy and fantastic rebounding from wing players.  Graham and Parker are big bodies who can wear down opponents and score in the lane or step out and hit a jumper.  The only major weakness on this team is a lack of veteran leadership.

Burning Questions:

Will Sam Mitchell be able to coach such a young team against proven veteran teams?  O’Neal is by far the most experienced player.  Bosh has limited experience but should be the most vocal in the locker room.  This core group of guys have been together for a couple years and have been eliminated in the First Round the past two seasons.  As talented as the Raptors are, the NBA is an experience-driven league.  They would need to acquire someone who knows what a deep playoff run means if Toronto is to win the East.

Can Jermaine O’Neal stay healthy?  Fans who remember O’Neal on the Pacers remember how dominant he used to be.  Even if he comes back close to that level, Raptors fans should be thrilled.  He’s been in the league twelve years, which is hard to believe, but he is still only thirty years old.  That is plenty young to recover and get back into shape.  But the NBA season is long and brutal, especially on the knees of big men.  This is something the Raptors must monitor closely and make sure to give O’Neal enough rest to make it through the gauntlet of the NBA season and post-season.

2008-2009 Prediction – Eastern Conference Finals – There could be no stopping this Toronto team.  They will be extremely exciting with the power of Kris Humphries and the acrobatics of Jamario Moon.  Bosh could make a serious case for MVP and O’Neal could be the comeback player of the decade.  Or they could struggle with injuries like most expect to happen.  The Atlantic Division will be tough with Boston and Philly both looking for deep playoff runs, but Toronto will feast on New Jersey and New York who will be awful.  With the right leadership, this team will be opening eyes and bring some basketball respect back to Canada.

2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: HOU/DAL

Houston Rockets:  First Round loss to Utah

Team Overview:  The team with the best chemistry during the season added a new piece that could completely overthrow the stability that led to a season-high 22-game winning streak.  On the other hand, Ron Artest could make the Rockets the most tenacious defensive team in the West.  Injuries were a major concern last season and after Yao Ming’s participation in the Olympics and looking less than sturdy, the Rockets may have to bench the big fella to keep him fresh for the end of the season.

Guys they can’t lose:  Rafer Alston, Tracy McGrady, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Yao Ming, Ron Artest.  The good news is they have plenty of impact players.  The bad news is with this many players, the likelihood increases that one will suffer a significant setback.  The most important player on the Rockets possibly gets the least publicity.  Rafer Alston runs the team efficiently and that is why the Rockets could still win when Yao and McGrady were out.  But when Skip to My Lou was out in the playoffs, the Jazz swept both games.

Guys they must lose:  Nobody.  Even Steve Francis has settled into a role he understands and plays well.  Instead I will discuss the major additions that will lead Houston to post-season success.  Brent Barry and Ron Artest.  Barry knows how to win.  He can play or defend almost any position.  He can hit big shots off the bench or provide the hustle that can spark a run.  Ron Artest can frustrate the biggest threats Houston would face in the West, primarily, Kobe Bryant.  Artest can also score and take pressure off McGrady and Yao to provide offense.

Burning Questions:

Will Ron Artest disrupt chemistry offensively?  This is Rafer Alston’s team.  He or anyone else in the organization may not admit it, but to get three superstars to work together, the point guard must run the show.  If any single star tries to take over, the other two are relegated to standing and watching.  Then they become very expensive statues.  If Alston is hurt or does not take command, the three stars will have a non-verbal power struggle that would keep the team from meshing and winning. 

Will Yao Ming be completely worthless this season recovering from the Olympics?  Giants do not have a lengthy shelf life in the NBA.  And Yao Ming has never had an “off-season”.  He works out with the Chinese National Team every summer and has minor injuries he cannot overcome throughout the year.  The best solution would be for Yao to play about 20-25 minutes early in the season and take a night off every two weeks.  After the All-Star break, let him get used to a bigger work-load and pray to that lovable little Buddha he stays healthy.  At least the Rockets have a exciting up-and-coming big man.  You may have heard of him, Dikembe Mutombo, 42.

2008-2009 Prediction – Western Conference Finals:  Even with injuries, this team is complete from top to bottom.  They have plenty of scoring and possibly the best defense in the West.  Tracy McGrady will get out of the first round and he won’t even be the reason why.  That honor goes to a former street balla and a Spanish player named Scola who never stops hustling.  The Rockets could certainly give the Lakers a run for their money in the West and Kobe Bryant would have to perform a hardwood miracle, which he is certainly capable.

Dallas Mavericks:  First Round loss to New Orleans

Team Overview:  Mark Cuban took mighty swing but whiffed last season trying to win an NBA Title.  He traded away a lightning quick point guard for one who wasn’t even around when quick was a word.  Jason Kidd is not reliable.  He is the opposite. He is careless with the ball and can’t shoot.  That is not what a good game manager should do.  Not to mention, Devin Harris was Josh Howard’s best friend and Howard lost the will to compete when Harris was shipped off for Pops Kidd.  Luckily, Nowitzki and a few other players were able to win enough to make the playoffs, where they were humiliated by the younger and faster Hornets.

Guys they can’t lose:  Dirk Nowitzki.  When Cuban traded Steve Nash (another great move, pause, NOT) Dirk became the focal point of the Mavericks for as long as no one else offers him more cash.  He is the only one that matters and can win games on his own.  But if the West is as strong as it was last year, that will not be enough.  The Mavs need to make moves and they should have done it in the off-season.  DeSegana Diop should be on this list because he was a crowd pleaser and hustle-guy, but he was also traded for Kidd.  Brandon Bass could work his way onto this list for next season.

Guys they should lose:  Jason Kidd, Josh Howard, Devean George.  Jason Kidd will make more money next year than any Dallas fan wants to know about.  But for those who aren’t, $21.3 million dollars.  Josh Howard will not play to his potential, which is a solid second option who still can’t hit clutch shots, if he is disgruntled with management.  I’m not saying he has to always play with his buddy, but he will not have the killer edge until he has something or someone to play for.  Devean George is still on Mark Cuban’s bad list and the fans know George made the Kidd trade even worse, if that’s possible.

Burning Questions:

Will Avery Johnson coach a team with a backbone?  Dirk Nowitzki is the toughest player in the NBA.  He plays through injuries and recovers from injuries quicker than any player.  But mentally, Dallas is not a tough team.  They do not have confidence and cannot shut down star players.  In the star-studded West, that is a big problem.  A team can make up for a lack in talent with grit and determination, and Nowitzki is the only player with either of those qualities.  Jason Terry is a solid cog, but not nearly enough.

Can Dallas compete in the loaded Southwest Division?  Houston, New Orleans and San Antonio have teams that could win it all next year.  And these are the teams Dallas will play the most.  Memphis is the other team and has been a perennial cupcake, but will have a few players (Mayo and Marc Gasol) that will make them much tougher.  Losses will add up quickly for a team already struggling.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs – (38-44 Record):  Mark Cuban bet the house on Jason Kidd and now the Mavericks can’t beat teams with winning records.  In the toughest division in the NBA, that is bad news.  I expect Dallas to make moves this season, but the current team is not good enough for the West.  Kidd and Nowitzki played in the Olympics and could be worn down, another bad sign.  Cuban will need some Ritalin to make it through this season.  Buying the Cubs should help with his blood pressure… yeah right.

Team capsules and predictions: CLE/ORL

Cleveland Cavaliers:  Second Round loss to Celtics

Team Overview:  LeBron James should always be the first two words uttered when referring to the Cavs.  James is the best athlete in the NBA.  No question, no debate.  His importance to the team cannot be overstated.  But he cannot win a Championship by himself.  Although ill conceived, management made major moves last year to try and provide LeBron with the needed support.  They were nowhere near enough.  Wally Szczerbiak could not hit a shot, which was his only job.  Ben Wallace is a tenacious rebounder, but can’t score.  And here’s a little tidbit, he will make more money next season than LeBron James.  That makes last year’s trade look even more detrimental to Cleveland.

Guys they can’t lose:  LeBron James, LeBron James and LeBron James. Every player on this team is expendable for the right price.  Daniel Gibson is a nice player and Ilgauskas has played the role of second fiddle decently, but he is not a top-level big man.  Rookie J.J. Hickson has been excellent in Summer League and could develop into a great compliment to LeBron.

Guys they should lose:  Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Eric Snow.  Combined 2008-2009 salaries for these three players?  Around $35 million.  For that money, the Cavs should be able to supply LeBron James with more than enough help to get back to the Finals.  None of them are bad players, but together they do not form a winning cast of supporting players.  Rumors circulating indicate James has interest in one of his Olympic teammates, specifically Dwyane Wade, and getting rid of those three contracts would be imperative before it becomes reality.

Burning Questions:

Can LeBron James carry another mediocre team deep into the playoffs?  The weight of carrying bad teams seemed to show on James last season as he missed some time with minor injuries.  Even in the playoffs, he did not seem to have the same enthusiasm he did the year before.  He needs support on the court, and off the court.  He needs someone who can score so he doesn’t always have to.  If help does not come, James will slip further into frustration and his play will reflect that attitude.

Will the distraction of LeBron’s impending free agency be too much for the superstar?  James wants to stay in Cleveland.  There is no place like home.  His friendship with Nets minority owner (less than 1% percent minority) Jay-Z has been talked about for the past year and speculation suggests a conspiracy that will land James in Brooklyn via New Jersey.  For the right price (money and players) James could leave Cleveland.  But the Nets do not have the players to entice The King.  Cleveland showed last year it is willing to make big moves to supports its star.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  The Cavaliers are a bad team.  They were a bad team when they made the Finals against the Spurs.  The NBA is a game full of superstars, but role players enable those superstars to win championships.  Until James gets sufficient role players, he will be a great player on a bad team.  The players on Cleveland’s roster are not playoff-caliber players.  James can lift the team into the playoffs but the East will be drastically better this season than last and surviving in the playoffs will be more difficult.  The Cavaliers will not sustain a top 4 record in the East and will not have home-court advantage in the post-season against a tough and more balanced team (which is any other team).

Orlando Magic:  Second Round loss to Pistons

Team Overview:  Building a team around a reliable center is a great way to create a successful franchise.  But the last time Orlando had a dominant big man, he got away to a bigger market.  The Magic management’s first priority must be to make sure that does not happen with Dwight Howard.  Orlando shot more threes last season than any other teams.  Every player, except the center, on the court can hit a three.  Maybe the Magic should acquire Mehmet Okur so no player ever has to go inside the arc.  But Orlando managed the third best record in the East last season with Jameer Nelson running the point.

Guys they can’t lose:  Howard, Turkoglu, Lewis.  I can’t stress the importance of Dwight Howard to this organization.  Finding a true center that can dominate the post in the NBA is rare and the Magic must cling to him.  Hedo Turkoglu does not get enough credit around the league for his role on this team.  He does everything and does it with an attitude that gives the Magic toughness.  Rashard Lewis could be more of a star if he would play with Turkoglu’s attitude.  But he falls in love with the three and stops driving to the hoop.  With a guy like Howard down low and the three point shooters on this team, the Magic need a guy who can penetrate and disrupt defenses.

Guys they should lose:  J.J. Redick.  How is this guy not playing in Europe yet?  With all the players transitioning to European basketball, Redick needs to go.  He does not fit in the NBA game.  It’s easy to score on a team full of collegiate stars with a short three-point line.  But Redick will never help a team win games.  Other than him, and he doesn’t even play, the Magic have a decent roster.  Jameer Nelson is not an upper echelon point guard, but does a good job with the players around him and could serve as a great back up if the Magic were to acquire someone in the trade market.

Burning Questions:

What will be Superman’s Kryptonite?  Dwight Howard is exciting and is almost unguardable if he gets deep in the post.  But he has not shown the ability to take over the game the way Shaquille O’Neal was able to in his heyday.  He must be able to hit big free throws so he can play late in games and avoid a Hack-a-Dwight scenario.

Will the Magic live by the three or die by the three?  Shooting 33% from three point range is equally efficient as shooting 50% from inside the arc.  The Magic shot the 4^th best percentage from downtown and were 6^th in scoring.  Seems like the strategy worked pretty well.  What games will come down to for the Magic is hitting the clutch shot late in games and if Lewis, Turkoglu can step up, the Magic will be a team to be feared in the East.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  As talented as Orlando is, it is still an inexperienced team.  Stan Van Gundy is a good coach and knows what a winning team needs so I expect a move to provide leadership at one of the guard positions or help with depth off the bench.  Without it, Orlando can’t win a playoff series against another team who can defend in the post and force some bad shots while scoring in the high 90s.

2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: NOH/UTA

New Orleans Hornets:  Second Round loss to Spurs

 

Team Overview:  The Hornets seemed to come out of nowhere, but the people who watched them since Chris Paul arrived knew they had the potential for greatness if the players would stay healthy.  1n the 2007-2008 regular season, Paul, West, Stojakovic and Chandler missed just 16 games combined.  Compared to126 games the four missed the previous year.  But the Bees showed signs of breaking down in the playoffs with West (back) and Chandler (ankle) both having injury issues.  The acquisition of James Posey fresh of another NBA Championship fortifies the bench and is a huge help with defense.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  CP3, D-West, Chandler, Stojakovic and Posey.  Posey makes his second “Guys they can’t lose” list, this time with the Hornets, because of his defensive ability, his post-season experience and his big shot capability.  Stojakovic is a fantastic scorer that can carry a team or just sit outside and make defenses pay when they try to double-team.  West is a dynamic scorer who is finally breaking out and could prove to be a perennial All-Star.  Chandler is a fierce rebounder and a better pick-and-roll partner with Paul.

 

Guys they should lose:  Bonzi Wells.  Wells was brought in because of his experience and to score off the bench.  He fulfills neither role as well as Posey will and Wells is a ball-stopper.  When he touches the rock, everyone else is delegated to spectators.  Byron Scott and GM Jeff Bower have done a phenomenal job filling the roster with useful players with a specific role, and Wells no longer fills a role.

 

Burning Questions:

Can New Orleans stay healthy?  Last year seemed like the exception, rather than the rule, especially with Stojakovic.  I doubt he will last all season and will become a non-factor for the playoffs.  West and Chandler are both tough and should be  fine, but I don’t trust Chris Paul with his size and physical style of play.

 

Will the young Hornets be ready to dominate opponents’ benches?  Jannero Pargo, Julian Wright and Hilton Armstrong have developed and shown flashes of competing on the highest level.  With Posey, the Hornets bench looks like the most solid back-up unit in the West.  Pargo and Wright could break-out and have stellar seasons and help win a ton of games for the Hornets.

 

Will playing with Team USA be a positive or negative experience?  He will no doubt gain knowledge and skill from playing with 14 other superstars as well as being surrounded by some of the greatest basketball minds ever assembled.  Instead of resting from a rigorous season and two rounds of intense playoff action, he will be competing against stiff international competition.  Assuming he doesn’t suffer any injuries, he might not have the energy for another full season and playoff run.

 

2008-2009 Prediction -- Second Round:  I love the team the Hornets will have when the season starts, but there is no way everyone will stay healthy the entire year.  I hate “predicting injuries” but there is too much evidence to ignore.  If Bower can work his magic in free agency again, the Hornets have the offensive talent, and now with Posey, defensive toughness to shut down some of the Western traditional powerhouses.

Utah Jazz:  Second Round loss to Lakers

 

Team Overview: Since the arrival of Deron Williams the Jazz have become a formidable team in the West.  A one-two punch with Carlos Boozer makes the Jazz tough on offense.  Kyle Korver, traded for last season, made the Jazz a dangerous offensive team.  The Jazz have good size and rebounding, but lack a true center.  Mehmet Okur tends to float around the perimeter looking for threes.  While it’s tough to stop, it takes away from a potential post-up game.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  D-Will, Boozer, Brewer, Korver.  Kirilenko and Okur are solid players, but they are not championship material.  Paul Millsap is a banger in the post and is dominate against most second strings.  Ronnie Brewer is the only player who brings pure excitement and energy to the starting lineup.  He has talent, but can be wildly inconsistent.  If there is a coach in the league who can teach him to limit turnovers and bad shots, it’s Jerry Sloan.  Kyle Korver is a lights-out shooter who made a huge difference but is limited athletically.

 

Guys they should lose:  All the backup centers.  The Jazz have been trying to find someone who can play in the post and compliment Boozer.  Someone who forces defenses to guard down low and leave Boozer in one-on-one defenses.  Jarron Collins is not that guy.  Kosta Koufos was picked 23^rd in the 2008 Draft, but does not look tough enough in limited Summer League action.  Kyrylo Fesenko was also unimpressive in the Rocky Mountain Revue.  The Jazz should dump these guys on someone’s porch, ring the bell and run like hell.

 

Burning Questions:

How will playing with Team USA affect Boozer and Williams?  Both players are young and have a history of not getting hurt.  Not to mention both are physically built like rocks.  Playing with the world’s best should be nothing but helpful for the duo.

 

Which Kirilenko will show up for ’08-’09?  In 2005-2006, Kirilenko averaged over 15 points and 8 rebounds a game.  The following year his numbers dropped to under 9 points and 5 rebounds a contest.  He has taken a back seat to Williams and Boozer, but his field goal percentage has gone up every year since D-Will arrived.  Maybe scoring and rebounding production isn’t as crucial from AK-47.

 

Is the Jazz good enough in any area to be the best as a whole?  The Jazz is well rounded, but lack a “superstar”.   If they can find a way to use the team mentality to subdue the star-filled West, they can get through the second round.  While deep and balanced at every position, no one has shown the ability to take over a game.

 

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  The Jazz is a solid and balanced team that is dominating at home.  But most of the best teams are dominating at home, so that advantage goes out the window in the playoffs.  If Rafer Alston had not missed a couple games in the first round the Jazz would have lost to the Rockets in the first round. The Jazz is balanced but not spectacular.  I think they peaked the past two seasons and this team is consistent enough to live in the second round of the playoffs, but no further and any missteps will lead to a shorter season.

Team Capsules and Predictions: DET/SAN

Detroit Pistons:  Eastern Conference Finals

 

Team Overview:  The deepest team in the NBA couldn’t get enough out of the five guys on the court for whatever reason, possibly Rasheed’s apathy, and lost unceremoniously to the Celtics.  Trade rumors sending Billups and Prince to Denver for Carmelo were tough to figure out, but I would guess Joe Dumars realized no matter how many talented players he had on the bench, only five guys can play at one time and more importantly only one can shoot at a time.  Still, Billups and Prince are great team players; unselfish and great defenders.  Detroit has enough talent to field a successful NBA team and a great D-League team, but they are only pretty good, not great and won’t be able to knock off a great team like a Boston or if LeBron gets some help.

 

Guys they can’t lose:  Hamilton, Prince, Stuckey, Maxiell.  The reason Billups and Rasheed aren’t on this list is because they have become to complacent being good and not great.  They are great players, but they’re attitudes keep Detroit from realizing the team’s potential.  Hamilton gives 25 points a game in the most efficient way of any player in the league.  Prince is a stellar defender and makes huge emotional plays at key times.  Stuckey and Maxiell are the future of the franchise.  These guys are fantastic to watch.  They are exciting and don’t make many mistakes which is rare for their inexperience.  Not many franchises are set to be good for the next 15 years.  Detroit fans should feel pretty good about the future.

 

Guys they should lose:  Nobody.  There is not a guy on this team that causes problems on or off the court, as far as us fans know.  Everyone plays well with everyone else.  There is no one that is holding the Pistons back.

 

Burning Questions:

What will the coaching change do to an already successful team?  Saunders is gone.  Michael Curry is in.  Curry is completely unproven, but he doesn’t need to build a team or develop talent.  Everything a coach could ever want is already there.  All he has to do is light a fire under the asses of a bunch of All-Stars and future All-Stars and keep them hungry through a long season and playoff run.

 

Will the young guys start competing for starting jobs?  Stuckey, Maxiell, Amir Johnson and Arron Afflalo are all good, but without significant injuries to the current starters, only Maxiell has a shot at starting consistentle.  Antonio McDyess is playing on completely on rebuilt knees and could use all the rest he could get, and if Maxiell can develop a mid-range jumper, he will start and become an essential piece of the Pistons Pie.

 

Prediction for 2008-09: Second Round – Next year will be a transition year for Michael Curry and his team.  The young guys are not quite ready to dominate the league, but will play enough to improve.  The veterans will be consistent but they still don’t have the tenacity to win it all.  I expect a determined Toronto or Cleveland team to knock off the second-seeded Pistons.

 

 

 

 

 

San Antonio Spurs: Western Conference Finals

 

Team Overview:  First off, the Spurs are an old team.  But they’re star players are not old; Duncan – 32, Ginobili – 29 (next season), Parker – 26.  They need some youth in the role positions.  Ian Mahinmi has been playing well in the D-League and could start providing help, but that is far from enough.  San Antonio needs to make a bold move in free agency to get younger or the Texas Trio will get worn out well before they should.  Duncan is the best power forward of all time and does not need a new supporting cast, but someone who can take the constant pressure off Timmy would help.

 

Guys they can’t lose: Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Bowen.  This a pretty obvious list.  The only questionable player is Bowen, but it’s easy to see his importance. He is a three-point outlet and a lock-down defender.  He gives the team a tough mentality that most teams don’t have.

 

Guys they should lose:  Kurt Thomas, Michael Finley, Brent Barry.  All these guys can make significant playoff contributions, but they’re value during the regular season is minimal.  These guys are why the team is old and slow.  Sure, they are experienced and are still quality players, but they can’t keep up for an entire year and expect to have the energy to play well in the post-season.  Barry is already gone to Houston, a good move for both teams.  Near the trade deadline, the Spurs will make some moves to get quality guys, but until then, they need some youth.

 

Burning Questions:

Can they keep up with the young and competitive West?  Parker is still young, but he is getting left behind in the top echelon of Western point guards.  Paul and Williams are the new class and Parker showed he cannot stop Paul, but Paul cannot stop Parker.  That could develop into a great rivalry in the next few years.  Ginobili is unlike any player in the league, but playing his style he can only last another two seasons.  Duncan’s style could last pretty much forever, but those three can’t compete with the youth and talent of the Hornets, Lakers, Trailblazers, Jazz, etc.

 

Will they wait until the Rodeo Road Trip to turn it on again?  This is the three-week road trip the team takes when the rodeo takes over the Alamo.  In past years, the team has bonded and come together during this time to make a run into the playoffs.  But they may not recover from a slow start and could finish in the bottom three or four in the West.  That would mean a very difficult first round in the playoffs.

 

Prediction for 2008-09: First Round – The Spurs are scheduled for a Title next year, but I think this will be the year they break their on-again off-again pattern.  The players on the Spurs right now are not good enough to get out of the first round of the playoffs.  The difference between a low seed to a top seed is only a couple wins and the Spurs are on the short end compared to most teams.

Team capsules and predictions: LA/BOS

Boston Celtics: NBA Champions

 

Team Overview: Led by the tenacious defense of Kevin Garnett and the never-say-die attitude of Paul Pierce, the Celtics have the leaders and star power to make another run at an NBA title.  Ray Allen is still a scoring threat and Rondo is learning how to manage a team at warp speed.  Down low, Perkins and Davis can be a tough combo to handle, but they are limited on both ends of the court.

 

Guys they can’t lose: KG, Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo, Posey and Tom Thibodeau.  The big three is obvious and Rondo should go without saying.  Even if there were a point guard in the market, the Celtics have gelled around this guy and he knows how to bring out the best in the stars.  Posey still provides clutch offense and defense that only a handful of guys in the league provide.  Thibodeau should be the next assistant to become a head coach, but he likes Boston and their team.  For a defensive mastermind, he has all the tools he could want.

 

Guys they should lose: Sam (Gollum) Cassell, Tony Allen, J.R. Giddens.  Garnett fulfilled some promise he must have made years ago when he and Cassell were teammates that they would both get rings someday.  Now that he has His Precious, the Celtics should cut him loose and bump Eddie House up to the 2-spot in the depth chart.  Tony Allen is not a great defender, nor is he a consistent offensive producer.  He just confuses Doc Rivers into making bad coaching moves.  Giddens was selected 30^th in the draft and he is easily one of the most athletic guys in the draft.  He grew up near me and my brother played against him.  The text message he sent me after the draft sums up his behavior problems better than I ever could, “I wonder how long until he stabs somebody.”  Maybe KG and others can straighten him out, but that’s a risk they don’t need.

 

Burning Questions: 

Will Boston have the same passion and intensity to repeat?  Garnett is the Niagara Falls of intensity, but now that the big three has that first ring, maintaining the energy needed to endure the rigors of an 82-game season along with another trying playoff run will be a challenge.

 

Can they hide from the Basketball Reaper?  He comes for us all.  The end of someone’s career is near.  KG and Pierce both seem to have at least three more seasons, but Allen seems more fragile.  Is the C’s can get someone to spell Jesus during the season, he should be able to contribute in the post-season.

 

Prediction for 2008-09:  NBA Finals -- The Celtics will be great again in the regular season, although not taking every game by the throat, causing them to slip a few games in their final record.  But unless another team can emerge as a powerhouse, Boston should be able to repeat as the Eastern Conference Champs in the regular season.  If health is not an issue, and that’s a big ‘if’ the Celtics will return to the NBA Finals but lose to a more complete team.

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Lakers: NBA Finals

 

Team Overview: The 2008 MVP should be ecstatic that more help is on the way.  Andrew Bynum is recovered from knee surgery but is seeking a healthy contract extension.  Kobe Bryant and the Lakers have the talent to be one of the most dominant teams of all time.   From Kobe to Farmar and Ariza, everyone will play a significant role.  The team is young, and should be hungry after coming so close in the Finals, then getting blown away in Game 6.  That’s a game you think about in the off-season while working out.

 

Guys they can’t lose: Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Phil Jackson.  Seeing how far the Lake-show could go without Bynum was impressive.  But they will not be good enough to get over the hump without the big man.  Pau Gasol played soft in the Finals but is still a great young player that will flourish as a power forward.  The most telling and fragile dynamic of this team will be Kobe and Jackson.  They have a history of problems and if Kobe starts trouble again for whatever reason, Jackson may look elsewhere for his record-tying 10^th NBA Title.  Without the Zen Master, the Lakers teamwork will suffer and break down like a hooptie on the highway.

 

Guys they should lose:  Vladimir Radmanovic, Lamar Odom.  The Radman is a waste of space save for 4-5 minutes of solid play.  Sasha Vujacic is also streaky, but provides a great defender and a reliable shooter.  Lamar Odom is a great player, but the way he plays is counter-productive to winning.  He is a guy who can put up decent numbers and help take pressure off other scorers, but the Lakers will not lack scoring.  Odom takes away 20-25 possessions from the guys who play with heart.  Odom floats around and when he does drive, it’s lackluster and easy to defend.

 

Burning Questions: 

Will the chemistry be right?  Somehow Kobe got along with this team well and if he can incorporate Bynum into that equation, nothing can stop this team.  If not, it will be a spectacular emotional and physical implosion that will make headlines for weeks.  Kobe needs national attention, so dropping his scoring average under 20 is unlikely.  That means someone will have to play for the team and not himself.  Jackson is the key in keeping everyone motivated.

 

Will the competitive West wear out the Lakers?  This argument only really applies when comparing teams from the West to teams from the East.  The Lakers, and any West team, only has to win four games against an Eastern team.  All the other West teams will be in the same or worse position so the Lakers can’t fret too much.

 

Will Kobe be healthy enough after the Olympics then surgery on his finger?  There is no way to answer this without some form of a time machine or magic mirror.  But knowing the uber-competitive Bryant, he will be back, miss about three to four weeks of the season and be rested for a shortened charge to the Title.

 

Prediction for 2008-09:  NBA Champs – The Lakers are too talented not too succeed next year.  They have depth, youth and experience, a superstar, a superb defense, a master coach and a great frontline.  That is plenty to dominate the NBA and win it all.