2008-2009 NBA Predictions

 

NBA Finals:  Lakers d. Celtics

 

West Finals: Lakers d. Rockets West Second Round:  Rockets d. Hornets West Second Round:  Lakers d. Suns West First Round: Lakers d. Nuggets West First Round: Rockets d. Spurs West First Round: Hornets d. Trailblazers West First Round: Suns d. Jazz

East Finals: Celtics d. Raptors East Second Round: Celtics d. 76ers East Second Round: Raptors d. Pistons East First Round: Celtics d. Heat East First Round: Pistons d. Wizards East First Round: Raptors d. Cavaliers East First Round: 76ers d. Magic

West Final Standings – 2008-2009 1. Lakers 2. Rockets 3. Jazz 4. Hornets 5. Trailblazers 6. Suns 7. Spurs 8. Nuggets

East Final Standings – 2008-2009 1. Celtics 2. Pistons 3. Raptors 4. 76ers 5. Magic 6. Cavaliers 7. Wizards 8. Heat

Warriors Mavericks Clippers Kings Grizzlies T’Wolves Thunder

Pacers Hawks Bulls Bobcats Bucks Nets Knicks

Team Capsules and Predictions: POR/MIA/NYK

Portland Trailblazers: Missed Playoffs

Team Overview: I have officially declared this team the “Team to Watch” for 2008-2009.  They surpassed most people’s expectations last year going 41-41 but still missing the playoffs.  The way these young players attack the rim, they get high percentage shots and will earn many trips to the free throw line.  Not to mention create a lot of exciting dunks and highlights.  Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge took a major step in their careers last season proving they can win games and lead a team.  Now they have more talent behind them and will have to continue to develop as stars for the Blazers to take the next step to the playoffs.

Guys they can’t lose: Roy, Aldridge, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw.  Roy and Aldridge are the leaders and stars.  Despite their youth, they have taken the team in their back how they perform will be how the Blazers perform.  Greg Oden is supposed to be the difference maker and from how dominant he has looked at times in pre-season, he should make a huge impact.  Don’t judge Oden’s influence by his offensive numbers, his biggest impact will be felt in the paint on defense.  Travis Outlaw is the guy the Blazers rely on late in games to hit the clutch shots.  He won at least two games last season by hitting crucial shots.

Guys they should lose:  Steve Blake.  Blake is just blocking the way for Sergio Rodriguez, who was snubbed from the Spanish National Team, to take a bigger role with the team.  Rodriguez is a dynamic guard who can hit the three, drive to the hole, but mostly finds an open player.  Blake is not a bad point guard, but he has limited potential and should not see more minutes than Rodriguez.  And the more minutes Nate McMillan can give Jerryd Bayless, the quicker he can develop and help the team.

Burning Questions:

Are the Trailblazers too young to make the playoffs?  The average age of this team is under 24.  In the NBA, youth does not typically win.  Veterans win games and make deep runs into the playoffs.  But there is an exception to every rule and the Blazers will be this year’s exception.

Will the Portland second string be able to build on leads?  Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez make an electric tandem in the backcourt.  Making exciting plays are crucial to energize the crowd and excite the starters watching from the bench.  Fernandez has show incredible vision on the court and a fantastic leaping ability with a knack for finishing at the rim.  He should make a serious case for the 6^th Man Award.  Joel Przybilla is the backup center and will be essential for keeping Oden rested and playing important minutes when Oden gets into foul trouble.  This second unit will be better than most in the West and will be key in making the playoffs.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Blazers will be the surprise of the West.  They have more athleticism and dynamic players than most teams.  Brandon Roy does not have the pressure of scoring every play and other players can carry the team when he struggles.  This environment should create confidence within Roy and make him a superstar in the league.  In the Northwest Division, over-taking Utah is not likely without major injury help, but passing Denver for second is a realistic goal and beating up on Minnesota and Oklahoma City should help the Blazers pad their record for a pretty good playoff seed.  The Blazers may not get much national coverage on the West Coast, but keep an eye on this time and check out as many highlights as you can find.

Miami Heat: Missed Playoffs

Team Overview:  The Heat are almost guaranteed to be the most improved team in the NBA.  After winning 15 games, anything the Heat do this year will be better than last season.  Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion are both stars and the “scrubs” saw a lot of minutes last year.  You can’t buy experience like that, plus the Heat earned the second pick and selected the talented but misguided Michael Beasley.

Guys they can’t lose: Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem.  Wade proved how important he is to the Heat.  By suffering through the season with injuries, the Heat were without their superstar and suffered a horrible season.  If Wade can stay healthy and play like he showed he is capable of in the Olympics, the Heat will have one of the best players in the NBA.  The Heat need Marion to be versatile and fill the holes the Heat have.  Right now, this means rebounding and guarding bigger players.  The Heat will also rely heavily on Beasley to score and rebound and provide some low post presence when necessary.  Haslem will be relied on to be a leader and force in the paint.  The Heats biggest weakness is a lack of big man but Halsem could go a long way to shoring up that weakness.

Guys they should lose:  Unless Marion becomes a headache, no one on the roster is detrimental to the team chemistry or gets in the way of another player stepping up.  Marion has the potential to be one of the best all-around player in the league, or he can be one of the biggest distractions.  Rumors for trading Marion have already circulated but unless the Heat can get a great price, they should just stick with him and try to make him happy.  The Heat would collapse if it lost Marion so they have to gamble on the fact that he plays hard, works hard in practice and provides positive leadership for the rest of the players.

Burning Questions:

Will teams underestimate the Heat?  The Heat were the worst team in the NBA last season but everyone saw Wade play in the Olympics and they remember that he can take over a game.  While a few might underestimate the Heat, no one should underestimate Dwyane Wade.  He is the best player in the NBA at attacking the paint and getting to the line in clutch situations.  The only way to beat the Heat is to slow down Wade and no one will forget how important that is.  However, no one knows how to slow Wade down so that might not even matter.

Will the young players step up enough for the Heat to make the playoffs?  The Heat will be relying on not only Beasley, but Mario Chalmers to play well in a backup role running the point.  Joel Anthony and Daequan Cook will both have to play well to fill their roles as reserves.  Cook is a lights-out shooter but streaky shooter.  Joel Anthony racked up a lot of experience last season that should prove valuable.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round -- The Heat benefit from a weak division with the Bobcats, Hawks, the injury-prone Wizards.  But the East is vastly improved from a year ago and the return of Dwyane Wade and the addition of Shawn Marion are two major reasons for that.  The Heat are my surprise pick for next year.  If the Heat make the playoffs, Dwyane Wade should be a lock for MVP and depending on how well Beasley plays and the impact he makes, he should be a strong contender for rookie of the year.

New York Knicks:  Missed Playoffs

Team Overview: The Knicks are in shambles and an embarrassment to the NBA.  But that could have changed with a few huge moves, namely the hiring of Mike D’Antoni as Head Coach.  Drafting Danilo Gallinari was a big mistake.  I’m not sure what the Knicks expected from the young player, but it seems like every year, someone takes a European player and he does nothing.  Most of the European players in the league have been successes without being drafted in the top 10.

Guys they can’t lose: David Lee, Nate Robinson.  These are the only guys who put the necessary effort into consistent winning in the NBA.  They may not be the most talented players on the team, but they work hard and play well as teammates.

Guys they should lose:  Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph.  These guys were the ‘leaders’ of last year’s team.  They are the guys with the talent and size that they should be NBA stars.  But they lack the drive and determination to get into shape and understand the dynamics of winning.  Marbury is a great player, but he is selfish, and while he might rack up the stats, the win column will always be neglected.  Curry has the super-human ability to pop a medicine ball with his ass.  While impressive, does not translate well to the hardwood.  He is too slow and lazy to thrive in the D’Antoni system and should not see as many minutes as he is used to.  Randolph still has potential but will likely be discouraged that he too does not fit in the run-and-gun style the Knicks will employ this season.

Burning Questions:

Will the Knicks develop enough chemistry to overcome talent deficiencies?  Every bad team has an excuse for the next two years.  Prepare to hear this line over and over, “We’re just freeing cap space to get LeBron, Wade, or Bosh.”  Unfortunately, there are more than three bad teams and at least one of those players will stay put.  I doubt the Knicks will be able to get any of those players unless they win some games and build some excitement for the young talent.

How will D’Antoni’s offense affect the Knicks win-loss record?  The Knicks are almost guaranteed to score more points this season.  But just as surely, they will give up more points.  The fans might love to see the players run the floor, but they cannot stop other teams from scoring, so expect the Knicks to lose a lot of high scoring games.  But losing was expected anyway, might as well provide some highlight plays while they rebuild.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs (29-53) – The Knicks have low expectations.  But Mike D’Antoni is expected to turn the franchise around.  Unfortunately for D’Antoni, he took over the franchise as it was headed over a cliff and it will be a long and trying process to turn the club around.  Knicks fans have some solace in the fast-paced offense that will light up the scoreboard, but will be endlessly frustrated with the gaudy amount of points the Knicks will surrender.  Not to mention the Knicks will battle in the toughest division in the East, against the Raptors, 76ers and Celtics.  A realistic goal is to finish fourth ahead of the Nets and try to turn that into a bargaining chip for free agents.  The Knicks need some patience from its fans and maybe an unexpected player to break out.  The NBA can be unpredictable, and chemistry dominates but the Knicks need a miracle to even see the playoffs with binoculars.

Team Capsules and Predictions: PHI/ATL

Philadelphia 76ers: First Round loss to Detroit

Team Overview:  The 76ers made two huge moves this off-season.  The first was re-signing Andre Iguodala and the second was signing Elton Brand.  Iggy gained confidence and leadership experience as the go-to guy last year.  He developed into a star and led the team to the playoffs and even challenged Detroit in the first round.  Lou Williams showed flashes of greatness reminding me of Devin Harris and Samuel Dalembert is improving but the addition of Brand in the post will help his production.  Philly also has several role players that can eat up good minutes and fit within the team mentality.

Guys they can’t lose:  Iguodala, Brand, Andre Miller, Williams.  Iggy and Brand are obvious.  But the point guard combo of Miller and Williams may be the most dynamic in the East.  Miller has experience and knows how to run a team.  He will be able to lead quietly with his play and allow the stars to flourish.  Williams can come into the game and provide quickness and excitement.  He is fun to watch and can make tough shots.  He averaged double-digits in points and is nearly impossible to guard.  That duo begins to wreak havoc on defenses and make scoring much easier for the stars.

Guys they should lose:  Donyell Marshall and Maurice Cheeks.  Quick, name one team Marshall has helped win.  Marshall is a lazy player who floats around the perimeter.  He disguises himself as a three-point threat but realistically, he will just be eating minutes that should be going to hustle players or young guys who need time to develop.  As far as Maurice Cheeks, he does not necessarily need to be fired, but he has a habit of talking to fans during games and that must be distracting to him and his team.  Watch the game Mo and focus on the next play.  Don’t be a Chatty Cathy with the season-ticket holders.

Burning Questions:

Who will be the leader and how will he handle the role?  Iguodala has been the man on this team since Iverson left and if he can gain the trust and respect of Brand, he could emerge as a superstar in the NBA.   A big man could be the leader, but there will likely be a power struggle if Brand tries to take the leader role from Iguodala.

Will late-season success carry over to this year?  The Sixers made a great run last year and almost caught the Pistons off-guard in what would have been a huge upset.  If that momentum is carried into off-season workouts and training camp, the Sixers should have motivation to play with intensity and would yield many wins early in the season.  However, Philly plays in a tough division with Boston and Toronto where wins will be hard-fought every night.

2008-2009 Prediction – Second Round -- The Sixers showed great chemistry and determination last season.  As long as Brand does not upset one of those, the fans that booed Santa Claus could be in for a treat.  If guys like Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Dalembert continue to develop and play like they did at times last year, this team will have plenty of players to rely on.  Then it becomes a matter of who steps up in key situations.  The 76ers are certainly on the rise in the East and have a great future ahead of them.  This year will open some eyes and show the beginning of a new era in the East.  With Boston only having another year or two left on top, it will be between Philly and Toronto to step up as the next East powerhouse.

Atlanta Hawks: First Round loss to Boston

Team Overview:  The Hawks surprised everyone by making the playoffs, but only winning 37 games was not that surprising.  What was more surprising was the Hawks taking the Celtics to seven games in the playoffs.  But this was not a great team.  Sure, they have talent and athleticism, but that’s it.  With Josh Childress bolting for Greece, the Hawks were left without a key role player.  But the main unit remains intact, led by veteran Mike Bibby at point.  Joe Johnson is a good scorer, but he is no superstar and will need help to lead the Hawks back to the post-season.

Guys they can’t lose: Johnson, Horford, Josh Smith.  Horford was my pick for Rookie of the Year, because his impact on a successful team was more significant than Durant’s impact on a terrible team.  Horford gave the Hawks a reliable post presence on both ends and a tough mentality that other players can see.  Smith is a dynamic player who could go for a triple-double any night.  But he could also get shut down any given night.  He needs to develop consistency but he is still an exciting player that puts fans in the seats making Atlanta a tough place to play.

Guys they should lose:  It’s tough to say any guy is negative for this team.  Right now, they have a lot of youth that could develop into winning players.  Marvin Williams was successful and earned a lot of respect in the clubhouse.  He shoots the ball well from inside the arc and attacks the lane, which earns him a lot of trips to the free throw line, from which he shoots over 80%.  Mike Bibby is not a great shooter, but he has been in tough games before and can take some of the burden off Johnson, while helping the young players gain confidence.  Still, this team is missing depth and needs to make a trade to compete this year.

Burning Questions:

Can the Hawks keep up with the improved East?  A big knock on this team was that it would have not even come close to making the playoffs in the West.  But giving the Celtics a scare in the first round helped their national respect.  But many teams in the East are improved and the Hawks may not be able to compete.  They are too young and not consistent enough to win big games.  The Hawks have a solid home-court advantage, but that will only steal them a couple wins.

How big of a loss was Josh Childress?  Not only did Childress provide energy off the bench, he had the best field goal percentage (57%) on the team, by a wide margin.  That is efficient scoring that someone will have to pick up or the Hawks will find themselves down by a few extra points every game.  Childress was also a good rebounder and defensive player who did not turn the ball over much.  If someone can step up and provide those lost buckets, it won’t be a major loss, but that player is not on the roster, yet.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs (36-46) -- The Hawks are about as good as they were last season.  They have more experience and the younger players now know what it takes to compete in the NBA.  But other teams have improved at a greater pace.  And with wins not as easy to come by and other teams getting more of them against West teams, the Hawks will be left of the post-season.

Team Capsules and Predictions: PHX/DEN

Phoenix Suns: First Round loss to Spurs

Team Overview: Steve Kerr rolled the dice with a major trade last season and many people considered the move a total failure, grouping it with Dallas’ big trade blunder.  I thought at the time, and I still believe, the trade for Shaquille O’Neal was the right move.  Shawn Marion is a fantastic player, but he was fed up with the Suns.  He needed out and Kerr saw a chance to bring in the most dominant center, maybe even the best player since Jordan.  Besides, the Suns had peaked, gone as far as they could with Nash, Marion and Stoudemire and Kerr want to win a Title.

Guys they can’t lose:  Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Shaq, Grant Hill.  This team is getting up and age and several of the key parts only have a couple years left in the NBA.  In fact, The Big Cactus said he will retire when his contract is up in two years.  If you take a moment to think about the successful teams in the NBA, you’ll realize they are almost exclusively composed of veterans.  Experience wins in the NBA, and the Suns have plenty.  With Barbosa, Bell and Stoudemire, they have youth and energy to match the young talent in the West.  With the addition on Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez (who will be a bust) the Suns can compete with a variety of opponents.

Guys they should lose:  No one on the roster hurts the team chemistry or cannot fill a valuable role.  But Terry Porter is the biggest question mark, next to Shaq’s age and health (which I predict will not be a question for long), as relatively new head coach.  Shaq liked Mike D’Antoni and was not happy to see him go.  Porter must overcome the inherent resentment and take control of this team.  And if the most exciting team over the past five years can lock down defensively, they could be close to unbeatable. 

Burning Questions:

Will age and health keep the Suns from a deep playoff push?  Grant Hill stayed healthy all season, Shaq was out of shape and hurt most of last year, and Nash has chronic back pain.  But I trust Shaq and Nash to push themselves back on the court to a competitive level.  Hill and Nash desperately want to win it all.  Shaq wants to be thought of as the greatest and he would LOVE to eliminate Kobe and the Lakers.

Can Terry Porter lead the Suns to play stout defense and still play to the player’s strengths?  Stoudemire is excited for the next year and I know he is not completely objective, but you have to think something is going right.  Shaq will take pressure off Stoudemire and Amare should have his best year in the NBA.  Stat is surrounded by great passers and guys who can score and might get some consideration for MVP is the Suns win their way to the top of the West.

2008-2009 Prediction –Second Round – This many great, veteran players could be a championship team.  And the Suns nemesis San Antonio Spurs are poised for a down year, which would allow the Suns a clearer path to the Finals.  But the Lakers are too good and have a complete team with a guy who can take over a game without help, unlike Stoudemire who needs someone to get him the ball.  Assuming the team stays healthy, the Lakers-Suns story line will be one of the most compelling in recent memory, but I doubt it will go the way of Phoenix.

 

Denver Nuggets: First Round loss to Lakers

Team Overview: Criticism flowed into Denver with the garage sale price the Nuggets received for Marcus Camby.  The Nuggets biggest concern is defense.  Its second biggest concern is defense.  With shipping out Camby, Denver did not help their two biggest concerns. Nene Hilario is coming back and Kiki Vandeweghe probably expects him to return to his level of play before he was diagnosed.  If Nene can play consistently in the post, the loss of Camby will not look as bad.  Either way, the Nuggets are far from a complete team and need a guy who can play lock-down defense.

Guys they can’t lose: Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Nene.   Without Melo and A.I., the Nuggets are a team who can’t play defense and can’t score.  At least those guys solve one of those issues.  Melo needs to establish himself as the team leader and lead by example on the defensive end of the court.  With someone like Iverson who has been such a fixture in the NBA for so long, that might be intimidating for Anthony, but he needs to stop making offcourt mistakes and convince his team to fight on defense.  Nene was emerging as a great big man before he was diagnosed with cancer.  If he can regain that confidence and swagger in the paint, the Nuggets will be tougher on both ends.

Guys they should lose: J.R. Smith, Chris Anderson.  Smith could get onto the ‘can’t lose’ list with a year of consistent play.  Not taking bad shots and turning the ball over are the two keys that would turn Smith into a serious weapon instead of just a streaky three-point shooter.  His athleticism is certainly an asset, but until he can prove not to be a liability when he isn’t on fire, he’s not going to help the team win games.  As far as Anderson goes, what were the Nuggets thinking?  The Birdman, fresh off his suspension for violating the NBA’s substance abuse policy for using what is speculated as cocaine, is a walking disaster.  Or maybe a dunking disaster would be more appropriate.  He is an electrifying player, but his issues will inevitably distract the team in the clubhouse more than his excitement will help.

Burning Questions:

Defense?  Anyone?  I understand how it could be discouraging to play defense when the guy next to you lets his man go to the hoop at will.  After watching the opposing team shoot open jumpers and practice layup drills at your expense, you stop working hard every possession.  And in the NBA, that will kill your chances of success.

Is Melo worth his extension?  Unlike LeBron, Bosh, and D-Wade, Melo signed an extension so he would not be a free agent in the summer of 2010.  He is locked for an extra year with a player option after that.  Clearly a great decision for Melo, because he won’t have to compete with three of league’s premier stars for big money.  But for Denver, if the team can’t figure out a way to play some defense and win some games, Melo could get disgruntled being locked on a mediocre team.  He desperately wants an NBA Title and trade rumors have already circulated.  How he plays next year will be significant for both parties’ futures.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round  -- Anyone who follows the NBA knows the Nuggets weakness.  If they can figure out a way to play solid defense, the landscape in the West shifts, but this still isn’t a good enough team to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Team Capsules and Predictions: WAS/TOR

Washington Wizards:  First Round loss to Cleveland

Team Overview: This team is like the nemesis to the Cavaliers.  The Cavs always end up winning like the hero in a Hollywood movie.  That would make the Wizards the villain.  But to Wizards fans, every year is a new chance to prove theirs is a team not to be taken lightly.  Every team has a Big 3 these days, but the combo of Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas are three of the most talented players in the East.  There is no lack of skill on the Wizards but team chemistry is the other half of the puzzle that Eddie Jordan must fit together for Washington to improve on it’s recent playoff success.

Guys they can’t lose:  Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.  These two guys have shown that not only can they take a back seat to make a star better (Arenas).  But if that star gets hurt, they can step up and lead the team to victories.  These two guys are versatile and can compliment any group of players.  With a quick point guard and a good rebounding big man, these two could flourish even further.  Nick Young has shown explosiveness and the ability to control the tempo of games.  The combo of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood down low provides consistent play and reliable, but not great, defense.

Guys they should lose:  Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson.  Speaking of players who destroy team chemistry, these guys are like the guys at the rec center who you know have talent but you hope are never on your team.  When you know you might only touch the ball once every five possessions, the motivation to play defense disappears.  And the drive to work hard on offense to get good shots for teammates also goes away.  It is no wonder the Wizards actually improve when Arenas is hurt and off the court.  He is a great player, but he kills the productivity of the other four guys on the court.  Stevenson is like his ball-hogging apprentice who is joining the family business of looking good but killing his team.

Burning Questions:

How long will Arenas be out after knee surgery?  According to reports, he is supposed to be back on the court the middle of December, but with his recent history, I doubt he will play in 2008.  I’m not saying that’s a bad thing because of the negative effect he causes on the rest of the team, but he can score and any other significant injuries would set this team back more than they can recover from.

Can the Wizards beat the Cavaliers?  Just like the Spurs recently in the West have bested the Suns, the Wizards are limited by their inability to eliminate LeBron James and Co.  The method of calling him out did not work well last year.  I would suggest the “nobody respects us angle” and see if they can get LeBron to relax.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round – The Wizards have experience, size, scoring ability and youth to provide energy.  But Eddie Jordan needs to control his players and establish a pecking order that puts Butler and Jamison is charge.  More importantly, Butler and Jamison need to establish themselves as leaders on the court.  The Wizards have plenty of role players and if one of them emerges as a star, the Wizards could be tough to beat.  As the team looks now, it is primed for another solid season followed by a disappointing early exit from the playoffs.

 

Toronto Raptors: First Round loss to Orlando

Team Overview: The Raptors have one of, if not the biggest teams in the NBA.  Three of the Raptors starting five will be 6-10 or taller.  Toronto lost T.J. Ford to acquire Jermaine O’Neal.  Ford was a victim of multiple neck injuries in the past couple seasons.  Ford lost some of his edge and was more timid driving to the hoop, which was a major strength.  O’Neal was a dominant player before suffering a major knee injury.  If fully rehabilitated, the Raptors would be nearly unstoppable in the post.  If not, they just acquired a very expensive bench warmer.

Guys they can’t lose:  Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, Jose Calderon.  Chris Bosh became the pleasant surprise of the Olympics for Team USA.  He showed incredible versatility and could be stepping into the upper echelon of NBA superstars.  With O’Neal playing the center, Bosh will be free to play against smaller defenders and avoid double-teams.  That tandem in the post will be the most dominant since Tim Duncan and David Robinson.  Jose Calderon has a great ability to get other players involved while taking advantage of his own scoring chances.

Guys they should lose:  This team has no negative players.  Even Andrea Bargnani is developing into a reliable player.  This is close to a complete team.  Delfino and Kapono provide range from downtown.  Humphries and Moon provide energy and fantastic rebounding from wing players.  Graham and Parker are big bodies who can wear down opponents and score in the lane or step out and hit a jumper.  The only major weakness on this team is a lack of veteran leadership.

Burning Questions:

Will Sam Mitchell be able to coach such a young team against proven veteran teams?  O’Neal is by far the most experienced player.  Bosh has limited experience but should be the most vocal in the locker room.  This core group of guys have been together for a couple years and have been eliminated in the First Round the past two seasons.  As talented as the Raptors are, the NBA is an experience-driven league.  They would need to acquire someone who knows what a deep playoff run means if Toronto is to win the East.

Can Jermaine O’Neal stay healthy?  Fans who remember O’Neal on the Pacers remember how dominant he used to be.  Even if he comes back close to that level, Raptors fans should be thrilled.  He’s been in the league twelve years, which is hard to believe, but he is still only thirty years old.  That is plenty young to recover and get back into shape.  But the NBA season is long and brutal, especially on the knees of big men.  This is something the Raptors must monitor closely and make sure to give O’Neal enough rest to make it through the gauntlet of the NBA season and post-season.

2008-2009 Prediction – Eastern Conference Finals – There could be no stopping this Toronto team.  They will be extremely exciting with the power of Kris Humphries and the acrobatics of Jamario Moon.  Bosh could make a serious case for MVP and O’Neal could be the comeback player of the decade.  Or they could struggle with injuries like most expect to happen.  The Atlantic Division will be tough with Boston and Philly both looking for deep playoff runs, but Toronto will feast on New Jersey and New York who will be awful.  With the right leadership, this team will be opening eyes and bring some basketball respect back to Canada.

2008-2009 Team Capsules and Predictions: HOU/DAL

Houston Rockets:  First Round loss to Utah

Team Overview:  The team with the best chemistry during the season added a new piece that could completely overthrow the stability that led to a season-high 22-game winning streak.  On the other hand, Ron Artest could make the Rockets the most tenacious defensive team in the West.  Injuries were a major concern last season and after Yao Ming’s participation in the Olympics and looking less than sturdy, the Rockets may have to bench the big fella to keep him fresh for the end of the season.

Guys they can’t lose:  Rafer Alston, Tracy McGrady, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Yao Ming, Ron Artest.  The good news is they have plenty of impact players.  The bad news is with this many players, the likelihood increases that one will suffer a significant setback.  The most important player on the Rockets possibly gets the least publicity.  Rafer Alston runs the team efficiently and that is why the Rockets could still win when Yao and McGrady were out.  But when Skip to My Lou was out in the playoffs, the Jazz swept both games.

Guys they must lose:  Nobody.  Even Steve Francis has settled into a role he understands and plays well.  Instead I will discuss the major additions that will lead Houston to post-season success.  Brent Barry and Ron Artest.  Barry knows how to win.  He can play or defend almost any position.  He can hit big shots off the bench or provide the hustle that can spark a run.  Ron Artest can frustrate the biggest threats Houston would face in the West, primarily, Kobe Bryant.  Artest can also score and take pressure off McGrady and Yao to provide offense.

Burning Questions:

Will Ron Artest disrupt chemistry offensively?  This is Rafer Alston’s team.  He or anyone else in the organization may not admit it, but to get three superstars to work together, the point guard must run the show.  If any single star tries to take over, the other two are relegated to standing and watching.  Then they become very expensive statues.  If Alston is hurt or does not take command, the three stars will have a non-verbal power struggle that would keep the team from meshing and winning. 

Will Yao Ming be completely worthless this season recovering from the Olympics?  Giants do not have a lengthy shelf life in the NBA.  And Yao Ming has never had an “off-season”.  He works out with the Chinese National Team every summer and has minor injuries he cannot overcome throughout the year.  The best solution would be for Yao to play about 20-25 minutes early in the season and take a night off every two weeks.  After the All-Star break, let him get used to a bigger work-load and pray to that lovable little Buddha he stays healthy.  At least the Rockets have a exciting up-and-coming big man.  You may have heard of him, Dikembe Mutombo, 42.

2008-2009 Prediction – Western Conference Finals:  Even with injuries, this team is complete from top to bottom.  They have plenty of scoring and possibly the best defense in the West.  Tracy McGrady will get out of the first round and he won’t even be the reason why.  That honor goes to a former street balla and a Spanish player named Scola who never stops hustling.  The Rockets could certainly give the Lakers a run for their money in the West and Kobe Bryant would have to perform a hardwood miracle, which he is certainly capable.

Dallas Mavericks:  First Round loss to New Orleans

Team Overview:  Mark Cuban took mighty swing but whiffed last season trying to win an NBA Title.  He traded away a lightning quick point guard for one who wasn’t even around when quick was a word.  Jason Kidd is not reliable.  He is the opposite. He is careless with the ball and can’t shoot.  That is not what a good game manager should do.  Not to mention, Devin Harris was Josh Howard’s best friend and Howard lost the will to compete when Harris was shipped off for Pops Kidd.  Luckily, Nowitzki and a few other players were able to win enough to make the playoffs, where they were humiliated by the younger and faster Hornets.

Guys they can’t lose:  Dirk Nowitzki.  When Cuban traded Steve Nash (another great move, pause, NOT) Dirk became the focal point of the Mavericks for as long as no one else offers him more cash.  He is the only one that matters and can win games on his own.  But if the West is as strong as it was last year, that will not be enough.  The Mavs need to make moves and they should have done it in the off-season.  DeSegana Diop should be on this list because he was a crowd pleaser and hustle-guy, but he was also traded for Kidd.  Brandon Bass could work his way onto this list for next season.

Guys they should lose:  Jason Kidd, Josh Howard, Devean George.  Jason Kidd will make more money next year than any Dallas fan wants to know about.  But for those who aren’t, $21.3 million dollars.  Josh Howard will not play to his potential, which is a solid second option who still can’t hit clutch shots, if he is disgruntled with management.  I’m not saying he has to always play with his buddy, but he will not have the killer edge until he has something or someone to play for.  Devean George is still on Mark Cuban’s bad list and the fans know George made the Kidd trade even worse, if that’s possible.

Burning Questions:

Will Avery Johnson coach a team with a backbone?  Dirk Nowitzki is the toughest player in the NBA.  He plays through injuries and recovers from injuries quicker than any player.  But mentally, Dallas is not a tough team.  They do not have confidence and cannot shut down star players.  In the star-studded West, that is a big problem.  A team can make up for a lack in talent with grit and determination, and Nowitzki is the only player with either of those qualities.  Jason Terry is a solid cog, but not nearly enough.

Can Dallas compete in the loaded Southwest Division?  Houston, New Orleans and San Antonio have teams that could win it all next year.  And these are the teams Dallas will play the most.  Memphis is the other team and has been a perennial cupcake, but will have a few players (Mayo and Marc Gasol) that will make them much tougher.  Losses will add up quickly for a team already struggling.

2008-2009 Prediction – Miss Playoffs – (38-44 Record):  Mark Cuban bet the house on Jason Kidd and now the Mavericks can’t beat teams with winning records.  In the toughest division in the NBA, that is bad news.  I expect Dallas to make moves this season, but the current team is not good enough for the West.  Kidd and Nowitzki played in the Olympics and could be worn down, another bad sign.  Cuban will need some Ritalin to make it through this season.  Buying the Cubs should help with his blood pressure… yeah right.

Team capsules and predictions: CLE/ORL

Cleveland Cavaliers:  Second Round loss to Celtics

Team Overview:  LeBron James should always be the first two words uttered when referring to the Cavs.  James is the best athlete in the NBA.  No question, no debate.  His importance to the team cannot be overstated.  But he cannot win a Championship by himself.  Although ill conceived, management made major moves last year to try and provide LeBron with the needed support.  They were nowhere near enough.  Wally Szczerbiak could not hit a shot, which was his only job.  Ben Wallace is a tenacious rebounder, but can’t score.  And here’s a little tidbit, he will make more money next season than LeBron James.  That makes last year’s trade look even more detrimental to Cleveland.

Guys they can’t lose:  LeBron James, LeBron James and LeBron James. Every player on this team is expendable for the right price.  Daniel Gibson is a nice player and Ilgauskas has played the role of second fiddle decently, but he is not a top-level big man.  Rookie J.J. Hickson has been excellent in Summer League and could develop into a great compliment to LeBron.

Guys they should lose:  Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Eric Snow.  Combined 2008-2009 salaries for these three players?  Around $35 million.  For that money, the Cavs should be able to supply LeBron James with more than enough help to get back to the Finals.  None of them are bad players, but together they do not form a winning cast of supporting players.  Rumors circulating indicate James has interest in one of his Olympic teammates, specifically Dwyane Wade, and getting rid of those three contracts would be imperative before it becomes reality.

Burning Questions:

Can LeBron James carry another mediocre team deep into the playoffs?  The weight of carrying bad teams seemed to show on James last season as he missed some time with minor injuries.  Even in the playoffs, he did not seem to have the same enthusiasm he did the year before.  He needs support on the court, and off the court.  He needs someone who can score so he doesn’t always have to.  If help does not come, James will slip further into frustration and his play will reflect that attitude.

Will the distraction of LeBron’s impending free agency be too much for the superstar?  James wants to stay in Cleveland.  There is no place like home.  His friendship with Nets minority owner (less than 1% percent minority) Jay-Z has been talked about for the past year and speculation suggests a conspiracy that will land James in Brooklyn via New Jersey.  For the right price (money and players) James could leave Cleveland.  But the Nets do not have the players to entice The King.  Cleveland showed last year it is willing to make big moves to supports its star.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  The Cavaliers are a bad team.  They were a bad team when they made the Finals against the Spurs.  The NBA is a game full of superstars, but role players enable those superstars to win championships.  Until James gets sufficient role players, he will be a great player on a bad team.  The players on Cleveland’s roster are not playoff-caliber players.  James can lift the team into the playoffs but the East will be drastically better this season than last and surviving in the playoffs will be more difficult.  The Cavaliers will not sustain a top 4 record in the East and will not have home-court advantage in the post-season against a tough and more balanced team (which is any other team).

Orlando Magic:  Second Round loss to Pistons

Team Overview:  Building a team around a reliable center is a great way to create a successful franchise.  But the last time Orlando had a dominant big man, he got away to a bigger market.  The Magic management’s first priority must be to make sure that does not happen with Dwight Howard.  Orlando shot more threes last season than any other teams.  Every player, except the center, on the court can hit a three.  Maybe the Magic should acquire Mehmet Okur so no player ever has to go inside the arc.  But Orlando managed the third best record in the East last season with Jameer Nelson running the point.

Guys they can’t lose:  Howard, Turkoglu, Lewis.  I can’t stress the importance of Dwight Howard to this organization.  Finding a true center that can dominate the post in the NBA is rare and the Magic must cling to him.  Hedo Turkoglu does not get enough credit around the league for his role on this team.  He does everything and does it with an attitude that gives the Magic toughness.  Rashard Lewis could be more of a star if he would play with Turkoglu’s attitude.  But he falls in love with the three and stops driving to the hoop.  With a guy like Howard down low and the three point shooters on this team, the Magic need a guy who can penetrate and disrupt defenses.

Guys they should lose:  J.J. Redick.  How is this guy not playing in Europe yet?  With all the players transitioning to European basketball, Redick needs to go.  He does not fit in the NBA game.  It’s easy to score on a team full of collegiate stars with a short three-point line.  But Redick will never help a team win games.  Other than him, and he doesn’t even play, the Magic have a decent roster.  Jameer Nelson is not an upper echelon point guard, but does a good job with the players around him and could serve as a great back up if the Magic were to acquire someone in the trade market.

Burning Questions:

What will be Superman’s Kryptonite?  Dwight Howard is exciting and is almost unguardable if he gets deep in the post.  But he has not shown the ability to take over the game the way Shaquille O’Neal was able to in his heyday.  He must be able to hit big free throws so he can play late in games and avoid a Hack-a-Dwight scenario.

Will the Magic live by the three or die by the three?  Shooting 33% from three point range is equally efficient as shooting 50% from inside the arc.  The Magic shot the 4^th best percentage from downtown and were 6^th in scoring.  Seems like the strategy worked pretty well.  What games will come down to for the Magic is hitting the clutch shot late in games and if Lewis, Turkoglu can step up, the Magic will be a team to be feared in the East.

2008-2009 Prediction – First Round:  As talented as Orlando is, it is still an inexperienced team.  Stan Van Gundy is a good coach and knows what a winning team needs so I expect a move to provide leadership at one of the guard positions or help with depth off the bench.  Without it, Orlando can’t win a playoff series against another team who can defend in the post and force some bad shots while scoring in the high 90s.